webscussion on Bayesian causality
Three days ago, I attended (most of) and briefly took part in the discussion webinar run by Bayesian Analysis (the journal) and featuring the paper Causal Inference Under Mis-Specification: Adjustment Based on the Propensity Score by David Stephens, Widemberg Nobre, Erica Moodie, and Alexandra M. Schmidt, for which Pierre Jacob and I contributed a written discussion. I must admit being still rather agnostic about the possibility of running (Bayesian) causality in a general framework and in particular in the potentially misspecified setup studied by the authors. Among other things, there does not seem to be a framework where the suitability of the assumed balancing score can be tested or assessed, the Bayesian perspective is debatable, in particular because of the choice of plug-in estimates rather than cut/modularised versions, and the apparent inclusion of the regressors in the modelling is far from appealing (to me).
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