P(X<Y)

A simple X-validated question on approximating P(X<Y) from two independent samples of X and Y. Which can be solved by a Monte Carlo approximation to

\mathbb{E}[\mathbb{I}_{X<Y}]

using all pairs of X’s and Y’s if the samples are not too large and a subsample of this set otherwise. However, I am (still) wondering if there is a more efficient way of using both samples, for instance by comparing the empirical cdfs of through using a Mann-Whitney statistic… (ChatGPT version 3.5 first returned a nonsense solution mentioning approximating the above probability when both distributions are equal [!], before acknowledging its error.)

One Response to “P(X<Y)”

  1. Nice article !
    thanks for sharing with us
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