Archive for Académie des Sciences

Le Monde puzzle [#838]

Posted in Books, Kids, R with tags , , , , , , , , , , on November 2, 2013 by xi'an

Another one of those Le Monde mathematical puzzles which wording is confusing to me:

The 40 members of the Academy vote for two prizes. [Like the one recently attributed to my friend and coauthor Olivier Cappé!] Once the votes are counted for both prizes, it appears that the total votes for each of the candidates take all values between 0 and 12. Is it possible that two academicians never pick the same pair of candidates?

I find it puzzling… First because the total number of votes is then equal to 78, rather than 80=2 x 40. What happened to the vote of the “last” academician? Did she or he abstain? Or did two academicians abstain on candidates for only one prize each?  Second, because of the incertitude in the original wording: can we assume with certainty that each integer between 0 and 12 is only taken once? If so, it would mean that the total number of candidates to the prizes is equal to 13. Third, the question seems unrelated with the “data”: since sums only are known, switching the votes of academicians Dupond and Dupont for candidates Durand and Martin in prize A (or in prize B) does not change the number of votes for Durand and Martin.

If we assume that each integer between 0 and 12 only appears once in the collection of the sums of the votes and that one academician abstained on both prizes, the number of candidates for one of the prizes can vary between 4 and 9, with compatible solutions provided by this R line of code:

[sourcecode language=”r” gutter=”false”]
N=5
ok=TRUE
while (ok){
prop=sample(0:12,N)
los=(1:13)[-(prop+1)]-1
ok=((sum(prop)!=39)||(sum(los)!=39))}
[/sourcecode]

which returns solutions like

[sourcecode language=”r” gutter=”false”]
> N=5
> prop
[1] 9 11 7 12
> los
[1] 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10
[/sourcecode]

but does not help in answering the question!

Now, with Robin‘s help, (whose Corcoran memorial prize I should have mentioned in due time!), I reformulate the question as

The 40 members of the Academy vote for two prizes. Once the votes are counted for both prizes, it appears that all values between 0 and 12 are found among the total votes for each of the candidates. Is it possible that two academicians never pick the same pair of candidates?

which has a nicer solution: since all academicians have voted there are two extra votes (40-38), meaning either twice 2 or thrice 1. So there are either 14 or 15 candidates ex toto.  With at least 4 for a given prize. I then checked whether or not the above event could occur, using the following (pedestrian) R code:

[sourcecode language=”r” gutter=”false”]
for (t in 1:10^3){
#pick number of replicae
R=sample(1:2,1); cand=13+R
#pick number of literary candidates
N=sample(4:(cand-4),1)
#pick votes
if (R==2){
votes=c(1,1,0:12)
}else{
votes=c(2,0:12)}
#correct number of votes
ok=TRUE
while (ok){
drop=sample(1:cand,N)
los=sort(votes[-drop])
prop=sort(votes[drop])
ok=((sum(prop)!=40)||(sum(los)!=40))
}
#individual votes for scientific candidates
pool=NULL
for (j in 1:N)
pool=c(pool,rep(j,prop[j]))
#individual votes for literary candidates
cool=NULL
for (j in 1:(cand-N))
cool=c(cool,rep(100+j,los[j]))
cool=sample(cool) #random permutation
#compare votes
for (a in 1:39){
same=((a+1):40)[pool[(a+1):40]==pool[a]]
if (length(same)>0){
stoq=max(cool[same]==cool[a])
if (stoq==1) break()
}
}
if (stoq==0) break()
}
[/sourcecode]

which does not return a positive answer to the above question. (And does not require simulations from contingency tables with fixed margins!)

Statistique dans Le Monde

Posted in University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 5, 2012 by xi'an

Again, some relevant entries in the weekend edition of Le Monde: a paper on Nate Silver and his FivThirtyEight blog, with a short description of his statistical approach, namely to pool all existing polls in a sort of meta-analysis. Not going as far as mentioning LOESS or nearest neighbour regression techniques. [Even less Bayesian!] For this, the FAQ of FivThirtyEight is much more explicit:

Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster’s historical track record, the poll’s sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.

Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our ‘polls’, which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.

Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.

Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction

The second paper is a tribune written by Marc Lavielle, senior researcher at INRIA Saclay, on the (French) debate surrounding the recent publication of a study by Séralini et al. on the toxicity of the genetically modified NK603 (Monsanto) corn. Part of the controversy stems form the fact that this paper was distributed to the media prior to its publication with a confidentiality contract that prevented the media to consult other experts (but not from publishing nonsensical definitive headlines). Another part of the controversy comes from the publication by six of the French Académies (namely, Science, Agriculture, Medicine, Pharmacy, Technologies, and Veterinary) of a statement concluding to the lack of reliability of the Food and Chemical Toxicology paper by Séralini et al., followed by another tribune written by Paul Deheuvels, professor of statistics at Université Pierre et Marie Curie and member of the Académie des Sciences, tribune in which he disagrees with the opinion expressed in this statement and legitimately complains not being consulted while being the sole statistician member of the Academy of Sciences. (This debate was also reported in the recent October recap of CNRS Images des Mathématiques.)