Archive for Ben Aaronovitch

THAMES for mixtures, a reply from the authors

Posted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 23, 2025 by xi'an

[Here is a reply to my comments on THAMES sent by the first author of the paper, Martin Metodiev. The above replica of the cover of Rivers of London is obviously unrelated with the reply or the original blog, beyond presenting a fantasy map of the Thames!]

Thank you for your review of our article! Adapting your previous work in this field has been a pleasure. Before I respond to your comments, I would like to emphasize that the simplicity of our estimator lies in its simple analytic expression (a truncated harmonic mean of reciprocal unnormalized posterior density values). Indeed, our package “thamesmix” (recently submitted to CRAN!) has a function to compute the marginal likelihood of any mixture model. This function requires only two parameters: the unnormalized log-posterior function (the logarithm of the prior plus the log-likelihood) and the MCMC simulations from the posterior.

Regarding your main comments:

1. “the evacuation of earlier methods as not simple or not universal enough is rather disingenuous. For instance, software that do not return (latent) allocation vectors can easily be post-processed.”

I could not find an example of post-process simulations on top of MCMC outputs applied to compute these methods. It sounds really interesting, and I would be happy to cite it. Is there a reference that you can recommend?

In any case, the point still stands. Most estimators which we cite with regards to this point do not just need allocation samplers, but also the analytic expressions of the distribution of the allocation vectors or the distribution of the data conditional on these allocation vectors that come with them. I do not think that a closed form of this distribution is available in general.

2.“the handling of the label switching issue—the reason why Larry Wasserman saw mixtures at the same magnitude of evil as tequila!—is problematic for several reasons.”

The fact that our estimator is invariant to label-switching is indeed the core of our method. The simple Gibbs sampler gets stuck in one mode, and this is why the classical version of bridge sampling is biased by a factor of G! in the simulation setting. As you point out, this is successfully resolved when using fully symmetric bridge sampling in the experiment section. However, the computation cost of this fully symmetric estimator rises super-exponentially with G, so I do not see how it could be evaluated for G=15, where the number of symmetric modes is equal to 15! (over one trillion). One of the main points of our article is that the symmetric THAMES can be evaluated in a feasible amount of time, even in such a high-dimensional multivariate setting.

3. “the (legitimate) purpose of using marginal likelihoods for selecting the number G of components is weakened by the intrusion of alternate proposals to assess G from the data”

I would like to point out that these alternate proposals do not in any way impact the definition of the THAMES. It is the simple definition given in Equation (5). They are only used to speed up the computation.

4. “several mentions are made of the other estimators being biased, which is indeed the case for bridge sampling (if not necessarily for importance sampling), but not necessarily a central issue”

The problem that we see with the classical, non-symmetric bridge sampling method in the setting of mixture models is not simply that it is biased. The problem is that the bias is persistent and often roughly equal to the factor of G! when the MCMC sampler failed to switch between modes. We have not had this experience with the THAMES: it converged even when the MCMC was stuck.

Hugo[red] Awards 2023

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 23, 2024 by xi'an

Here are the 2023 awards [connected to my read & to-read lists]. As the votes were made by participants to the 2023 Chengdu Worldcon, Chengdu, China, censorship later came to light, regarding authors critical of the Chinese government, like Kuang, Zhao, and Gaiman, who did not make it to the shortlist…

Best Novel

Best Novella

Best Series

Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form

false value

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on November 23, 2020 by xi'an

A very pleasant eighth volume in the Rivers of London series after a few so-so episodes! The relentless deadpan of Peter Grant is back full shape, the plot is substantial and gripping, new and well-drawn characters abound, and the story offers an original retelling of the Difference Engine. (Not that I have reservations about Gibbson’s plus Sterling’s 1990 version!) Including mentions of Jacquard’s loom, card fed organ automates, Ada Lovelace and Mary Somerville. Plus providing great satire on Ai companies with a hardly modified “Deep Thought” pastiche. Enjoyable all along and definitely a page turner that I read within three days..! And being strongly immersed in the current era, from the passing away of David Bowie to the dearful impact of Theresa May as home secretary. Presumably missing a heap of references to geek culture and subcultures, apart from Hitchhiker Guide to the Galaxy. And too many quotes to report, but some mentions of stats (“the Red Army had done a statistical analysis with demon traps just as they had with conventional minefields. The conclusions had been the same in both cases.” (p.50) and “Beverley climbed into the bath with a second-hand copy of Statistics for Environmental Science and Management” (p.69), which is a genuine book.) As often the end is a bit murky and a bit precipitated, but not enough to whine about. Recommended (conditional on having read the earliest ones in the series)!

Lies sleeping [book review]

Posted in Books with tags , , , on March 23, 2019 by xi'an

This is the seventh book in the Rivers of London series, by Ben Aaronovitch, which I have been expecting a long time. Avoiding the teasers like The Furthest Station, which appears primarily as a way to capitalise on readers’ impatience. And maybe due to this long wait or simply fatigue of the writer (or reader?!), I found this volume quite weak, from the plot which major danger remains hidden to the duh? title, to the cavalcade of past characters (most of whom I could not place), to the somewhat repetitive interaction of Peter Grant with his colleagues and the boring description of car rides from one place of London to another, to an absence of hidden treasures from the true London, to the lack of new magical features in this universe, to a completely blah ending… Without getting into spoilers, this chase of the Faceless Man should have been the apex of the series, which mostly revolved around this top Evil, should have seen a smooth merging of the rivers when they join and die in the Channel, but the ending of this book is terribly disappointing. Sounds like the rivers are really drying out and should wait for the next monsoon to swell again to engaging pace and fascinating undercurrents! Although it seems the next book is on its way (and should land in Germany).

The Hanging Tree

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on March 25, 2017 by xi'an

This is the fifth sixth volume of Ben Aaronovitch’s Rivers of London series. Which features PC Peter Grant from the London’s Metropolitan Police specialising in paranormal crime. Joining a line of magicians that was started by Isaac Newton. And with the help of water deities. Although this English magic sleuthing series does not compare with the superlative Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell single book, The Hanging Tree remains highly enjoyable, maybe more for its style and vocabulary than for the detective story itself, which does not sound completely coherent (unless I read it too quickly during the wee hours in Banff last week). And does not bring much about this part of London. Still a pleasure to read as the long term pattern of Aaronovitch’s universe slowly unravels and some characters get more substance and depth.