Archive for Washington State
elusive Mount Shuksan [jatp]
Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags glacier, Glacier national park, jatp, Lummi First Nation, Mazama, Mount Baker, Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, Mount Shuksan, Nooksack First Nation, Pacific North West, PNW, Salish languages, USA, Washington State on August 25, 2024 by xi'an
when bib, beer, bug, bran, and belly unite [Lake Union 10k, 43:18, 84/1770, 2/33 M61-70]
Posted in pictures, Running, Travel with tags 10k, Adrian Raftery, Lake Union, road race, Seattle, University of Washington, USA, Washington State on August 23, 2024 by xi'an
Thanks to Florence Forbes, who was also celebrating Adrian Raftery’s carreer (so far!), I became aware the day before that there would be a 10k race in down-town Seattle, around Lake Union, Sunday morning, and decided to join, despite the hefty entry fees (although reduced for seniors like me!), and with a rather poor week, training-wise. With the impression that it was an easier race than the week before, being mostly flat… After a very fast, too fast, start, I began to feel belly pains, which forced me to stop twice by convenient bushes and to slow down to standard training times (despite keeping to 20mn at the 5k mark). A counter-performance, when I could have been among the 20 first runners with last week time (39:26). I wonder what is the origin for these belly issues, between having drunk (a small amount of) beer the previous evening, eaten deep-fried oysters the previous lunch (on Seattle harbour), swam in Lake Washington (with otters!!) the previous morning, or simply opting for a cereal breakfast too close to the time of the race… In addition, my time did not get recorded properly and I got listed as non-finisher, missing the podium in my age group. Oh well, not all races can be great and enjoyable!
Lake Washington sunrise [jatp]
Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags British Columbia, Canada, jatp, Lake Washington, morning run, open water swimming, otter, outdoor swimming, Pacific North West, Puget Sound, seals, Seattle, sunrise, University of Washington, Washington State, wildfire on August 22, 2024 by xi'an
celebrating the career of Adrian Raftery
Posted in Books, Mountains, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags ABCDE, Adrian Raftery, applied statistics, Bayesian statistics, computational Bayesian methods, Environmental Statistics, Ireland, JSM 2024, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Oregon, Pacific North West, Paris 6, Portland, Seattle, statistical demography, United Nations, University of Washington, USA, UW, Washington State on July 28, 2024 by xi'an
Adrian Raftery’s course in Paris
Posted in Statistics, University life with tags Adrian Raftery, Fédération des Sciences Mathématiques de Paris, FSMP, master class, National Academy of Science, Paris, Seattle, statistical demography, United Nations, University of Washington, Washington State on July 30, 2021 by xi'an
UW Professor and U.S. National Academy of Sciences member Adrian Raftery has received the 2020 FSMP research chair and as a result will be visiting Paris this Fall 2021. He will be located at the MAP5 laboratory at the University of Paris. In particular, he will give a 20-hour Master course on statistical semography. This will be given over four successive Tuesdays, with 5 hours of lectures per week. The course is open to all. Attendance is free of charge but registration is mandatory. (To register, please fill the attached form. Lectures will be given in the salle du conseil, on the 7ft floor of the Saint-Germain-des-Prés campus, 45 rue des Saints-Pères, 75006 Paris.)
Demography aims to estimate and forecast population, fertility, mortality and migration. This is important for government policy-making, private sector planning, and research in the health and social sciences, and also critical for climate science and global health. It has traditionally been done using deterministic mathematical methods, but these ignore uncertainty and measurement error. In the past decade, modern statistical methods were developed for this by our group at the University of Washington, and these were recently adopted by the United Nations for their official population forecasts for all countries. Statistical demography is expanding rapidly, and this course will teach theory and practice of methods and models of the field, with a focus on current and potential future research.The topics will be:1. Review of basic mathematical demographic methods.2. Modeling age-specific rates, including model schedules and Lee-Carter method.3. Statistical modeling and projection of fertility, mortality, migration and population.4. Reconstructing population and vital rates from imperfect data.
