Archive for ERC Synergy Grant

Information Geometry, Privacy and Monte Carlo workshop, ISM, 4-5 July 2026

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2026 by xi'an

After the (exciting) variety and spread of ISBA²⁶, here we are at much more focussed (and single-track), if equally exciting, workshop at the ISM. (With many participants from ISBA²⁶.)

On Saturday afternoon, Ajay Jasra talked about Particle filtering for state-space models with low, degenerate noise, with specific measure issues I did not really get, since the manifold attached to the noise was known, but the projected density may prove a challenge. Manifolds were also central to Kenji Fukumizu’s talk on Learning manifold structure and density with score-based models learning scores as projectors to the manifold, although it was unclear to me how this was possible when the manifold is unknown. Christophe Andrieu presented Geometry informed selection in multiple proposal MCMC which stems from an early multi-proposal (1998) proposal by Radford Neal and uses a multivariate ranking procedure to quantify a measure of surprise for the current  Markov chain value within the proposed ones. The crux for the efficiency of the approach may be in the choice of this ranking procedure. And Maria De Iorio talked about Efficient MCMC via similarity-driven proposals for discrete support targets, with similarities with ABC.

Completed with a human sized poster session where I reconnected with Spanish friends I had not seen for ages (by missing OBayes meetings).

On (pleasantly rainy) Sunday morning, Federica Milinanni detailled her Rapid mixing of stereographic MCMC for heavy-tailed sampling, essentially the same content as in Nagoya last FRiday, with a novel sub-Cauchy projection supposed to explore heavy tails better: while the regular stereographic projection turns the t-distribution with d degrees of freedom into a Uniform on the hypersphere, a sub-Cauchy projection turns the Cauchy into this uniform. In the privacy session I organised, Hongsheng Dai, member of our ERC Synergy project, presented an Online federated learning framework for classification, using DP as a criterion and achieving by adding noise to the loss function at each occurrence of the data production. Surprisingly increasing with the number of occurrences, not so much since the objective function keeps calling

Stefano Favaro described his Bayesian nonparametric privacy-preserving synthetic data generation method (for discrete data) that connects privacy protection and information preservation. (Incidentally I was unaware of the σ parameter of the Pitman-Yor process, which allows for a finite support when σ<0, but I cannot fathom the appeal of this extension, given the complete lack of connection between the positive and negative cases.) Surprisingly, non-parametric prediction does worse in terms of privacy, if not so surprising with discrete data since the predictive actually put weight on every datapoint. Resorting to  mechanism informativity by Wasserman and Zhou (2010) (with a surprise mention of my friend Arnaud Guilin!). And Joshua Bon gave his Persuasive Privacy talk of last Tuesday  (to be re-repeated two days later at ICML²⁶ in Seoul!). Except for changing the audience game from croissants to sumo wrestlers! (What will it be in Seoul!?) And adding much more details on the foundational elements of persuasive privacy.

The poster session was similarly enjoyable, even though I did not manage to get through all posters.

optimal sampling for kernel quadrature on unbounded domains

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 22, 2026 by xi'an

My PhD student Edoardo Bandoni, along with Julien Stoehr and myself, completed a paper on validating (Bayesian) kernel quadrature with unbounded domains of integration. Which connects with probabilistic numerics, since the integrand is modelled as a Gaussian process. And RKHS methods. As opposed to Monte Carlo estimators, quadrature methods approximate integrals of smooth functions with worst-case error decaying at a minimax rate α/d for smoothness α in dimension d. Existing rate-optimal quadrature methods often depend on deterministic point sets tailored to a specific kernel, making them sensitive to misspecification and thus less robust in practice. This paper studies instead randomised quadrature methods, with a focus on robustness rather than on kernel-specific optimality. We construct an explicit, n-dependent, sampling distribution that achieves minimax rates for worst-case errors over smoothness classes without requiring knowledge of the kernel. This kernel-agnostic design does improve robustness while retaining optimal rates and extends Briol et al.  (2019) to the unbounded case. Which cannot always be easily handled by a change of variables. Our result thus mostly covers unbounded sampling measures such as Gaussian and Student-t distributions, extending beyond compact domains. The results provide both theoretical guarantees and a practical recipe for robust, rate-optimal, randomised quadrature. [The above is mostly stated in the abstract.]

di ritorno a Venezia, nella privacy oceanica

Posted in pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 15, 2026 by xi'an

persuasive (and Oceanic) privacy

Posted in Books, Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 3, 2026 by xi'an

I am quite excited about the paper James Baillie, Joshua Bon, Judith Rousseau, and myself just arXived! A novel framework for measuring privacy we have been working on for at least the past year, partly through the previous Les Houches privacy workshops. In the spirit of these workshops and the larger scale ERC Synergy grant OCEAN, we develop therein a rather generic Bayesian game-theoretic perspective on achieving statistical privacy. It involves a Sender (observing the original data and delivering a limited output) and a Receiver (with potential adversarial intentions). The paper mostly focus on setting a theoretical framework, including the creation of new, purpose-driven privacy definitions that are rigorously justified, while also allowing for the assessment of existing privacy guarantees through game theory. While this was not our original intent, we show that pure and probabilistic differential privacy notions, in the Dwork et al. (2006) sense, are special cases of our framework. This setting provides new interpretations of the post-processing inequality. Furthermore, and somewhat more importantly, we also prove that our privacy guarantees can be established for deterministic algorithms, which are outside current privacy standards. Hopefully, we’ll make further progress at the incoming privacy workshop next month, to be held in Venice (again).

mostly Monte Carlo [last session of 2025]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on December 10, 2025 by xi'an

Rather hurriedly, here is the announcement for the last mostly MC seminar this year, to take place at 3-5pm this very Friday, Dec 12, 2025. It will take place in Salle 03, PariSanté Campus


3pm Least squares variational inference

Yvann Le Fay CREST, ENSAE

Variational inference seeks the best approximation of a target distribution within a chosen family, where “best” means minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence. When the approximation family is exponential, the optimal approximation satisfies a fixed-point equation. We introduce LSVI (Least Squares Variational Inference), a gradient-free, Monte Carlo-based scheme for the fixed-point recursion, where each iteration boils down to performing ordinary least squares regression on tempered log-target evaluations under the variational approximation. We show that LSVI is equivalent to biased stochastic natural gradient descent and use this to derive convergence rates with respect to the numbers of samples and iterations. When the approximation family is Gaussian, LSVI involves inverting the Fisher information matrix, whose size grows quadratically with dimension d. We exploit the regression formulation to eliminate the need for this inversion, yielding O(d³) complexity in the full-covariance case and O(d) in the mean-field case. Finally, we numerically demonstrate LSVI’s performance on various tasks, including logistic regression, discrete variable selection, and Bayesian synthetic likelihood, showing competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, even when gradients are unavailable.

4pm Beyond the Unified Skew-Normal: Extended Models for Bayesian Classification

Paolo Onorati CEREMADE, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL

Binary classification models typically lose the conjugacy and computational simplicity enjoyed by Gaussian models. While the Unified Skew-Normal (SUN) family has recently been shown to be conjugated under the probit model, two new developments are presented that extend this idea to a broader class of link functions, including both logit and probit. In the parametric setting, the Perturbed Unified Skew-Normal (pSUN) distribution is introduced; it is conjugate to any binary regression model whose link admits a scale-mixture representation of Gaussian random variables, enabling tractable posterior summaries, efficient sampling schemes, and strong performance in high-dimensional covariate settings. The discussion then moves to the nonparametric domain, where the Quasi SUN family and the associated stochastic process provide conjugacy for nonparametric logit and probit models while preserving key closure properties. A stochastic representation of this process yields practical computational improvements over existing Gaussian-based approximations. Together, these SUN-type extensions offer promising tools for Bayesian classification with accurate posterior inference.