Archive for Republicans

Trump goes to war against… randomization!

Posted in Kids, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on July 11, 2026 by xi'an

The US Department of Commerce, through its Office of Privacy and Open Government, has posted an order for federal statistical agencies to stop using randomization as a (worthwhile!) mean of protecting confidential data. Another instance of going against scientific arguments and validated procedures, and of dismantling decade long expertises, and of stopping a long series of observations, and of destasbilising federal agencies, from the Trump administration. To wit:

b.     Statistical Policy Directive No. 1, codified at 44 U.S.C. § 3563, requires each statistical agency, as enabled by the head of the parent agency, to adopt policies, best practices, and appropriate procedures to ensure the confidentiality, accuracy, and objectivity of its statistical activities and to disseminate timely and relevant statistical products.

SECTION 5. POLICY.

.01    Ensuring the Accuracy, Confidentiality, Objectivity, and Relevance of Statistical Products

a.     The Department shall, as a primary objective, aim to fulfill its statistical obligations by providing the public with accurate and objective information.

b.     The Department is firmly committed to striking a balance of accuracy, confidentiality, objectivity, and relevance for each statistical product that is consistent with its statistical obligations and the applicable legal requirements.

c.     Any use of noise infusion is inconsistent with the Department’s policies.

.02   The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis shall adhere to the following order of priority when considering and applying Disclosure Avoidance:

a.     Coarsening shall be the preferred category of Disclosure Avoidance methods for all statistical products.

b.     Suppression shall be permitted as a last resort, only to be used when coarsening is prohibited by law or would substantially defeat the accuracy or usability of a statistical product.

c.     Noise infusion shall not be used for any statistical product.

.03   This policy shall not be interpreted to conflict with any constitutional, statutory, regulatory, or other legal provision.

So here go (to the drain) differential privacy, enforced by the Census Bureau under the direction of John Abowd, as well as synthetic data, subsampling, et cetera! This will directly impact the coming 2030 census. With the asinine arguments by Commerce Department Kristen Eichamer that this is done to “maintain public confidence in our data while upholding our duty to safeguard the privacy of those who provide information” and that “indiscriminate use of noise infusion—even when not mandated by law—ultimately undermined confidence in the department’s products and cast doubt on their integrity.” NPR relates this order to the introduction of differentially private measures around the 2020 census and irrational Republican attacks on the procedure. Which reminds me of an earlier opposition to random sampling instead of “exhaustive enumeration” to correct for undercounts, which brought statisticians from both sides almost to blows! (With a defence of the correction procedure by my later friend Steve Fienberg.)

how the election result could affect scientists and science policy

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on November 28, 2024 by xi'an

Nature of 08 November 2024 has an article on the consequences of the dreadful election of Donald Trump on AI,

[Trump] promised to repeal US President Joe Biden’s executive order on AI, a guideline released last year for developing the technology safely and responsibly. Trump’s pledge echoes the Republican party’s platform, which says that the executive order “hinders AI Innovation” (…) “The emphasis will shift away from the regulatory environment” and towards technology companies making their own voluntary decisions on safety,” says Suresh Venkatasubramanian, director of the CNTR at Brown University.

on climate,

it will not be easy to undo Biden’s signature climate achievement: the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (…) Trump could have a bigger — and more negative — impact on climate progress if he moves to weaken climate regulations (…) increases the cost of clean-energy technologies (…) [and] pulls the United States out of the 2015 Paris agreement,

on health.

Trump has said that he will let Kennedy, who has questioned the effectiveness of vaccines, “go wild on” health (…) [and the US] support for global health is also likely to be “greatly scaled back” during Trump’s second term.

and on science in general

it’s unclear whether the second Trump administration will revive the China Initiative, although the House of Representatives advanced legislation in September that would do so. But a reinstatement of the travel ban [for half a dozen countries] is likely (…) [and] will make it harder for new scientific collaborations to arise

it did get worse!

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on October 19, 2024 by xi'an

red state – blue state – vaccinated state – unvaccinated state

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 6, 2021 by xi'an

The New York Times published an article demonstrating the partisan separation between US Democrats and Republicans by regression lines. As the one above, regressing the proportion of vaccinated on the proportion of Trump voters but no scale on the first axis. But no correction for age composition or population density. And the one below, plotted at the county level, which seems quite meaningless given the spread of red dots in Wyoming.

Still, there is a clear opposition between places (counties) that voted more than 70% Trump (representing 33M people) and those that voted more than 70% Biden (more than 58M people), even though county density, age composition, and earlier deaths from COVID should also be accounted for. But the vaccination rate also exhibits this opposition, with a 1.65 ratio between the first and last decile of the blue counties.

will it ever get better?! [verbatim]

Posted in Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on November 14, 2020 by xi'an

“…after his defeat in the 1800 election, Adams wrote bitterly that “we have no Americans in America,” and that “a group of foreign liars, encouraged by a few ambitious native gentlemen, have discomfited the education, the talents, the virtues, and the property of the country.” Adams was so disgusted that he refused to attend the inauguration of his successor, Thomas Jefferson.” Sean Willenz, 11 November

“This man is a pathological liar. He doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies. He lies practically every word that comes out of his mouth. And in a pattern that I think is straight out of a psychology textbook, his response is to accuse everybody else of lying.” Ted Cruz, 03 May 2016

“No sitting president — no presidential candidate, with the partial exception of Jackson in 1824 — has refused to accept the results of an election. I’m not surprised that Trump is threatening to do so, but refusing to accept the results of an election may be a bridge too far.” James T. Campbell, 11 November

“There is no enchanted village in Pennsylvania full of 50,000 Trump voters that we haven’t heard from already. It doesn’t exist.” John Fetterman, Pennsylvania lieutenant governor, 13 November