The traditional group picture at the end of Eric Moulines’ 60th anniversary celebration, at IHP, Paris. Some of the participants had already left (and I am carefully hidding in the background). Among the celebrating talks reflecting the huge thematic diversity of EM’s carreer, Patrick Flandrin gave a great historical account of a certain Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville and his invention of a sound recording device that did not meet with the same success as the later phonograph by Edison. A song he had registered in 1860 was retrieved in 2008 by a team of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, making it the earliest known intelligible voice recording in existence! Jean-François Cardoso explained how the team at Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris produced a near optimal estimate of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by linear projections preserving normality. Sara Filippi exposed a variational Bayes approach to selecting groups of variables in a GLM. Gareth Roberts illustrated retrospective sampling with his recent foray with Jeff Rosenthal in the lack of uniformity in the FIFA World Cup draws. Anatoli Iouditski spoke about a recent work on polyhedral estimation in statistical linear inverse problems. And Elisabeth Gassiat strolled through recent works on inference for hidden Markov models, including one at NeurIPS 2021 with Aapo Hyvärinen and others on nonlinear ICA. This was quite a fun meeting, with plenty of anecdotes and a few older pictures (even though I could not find any prior to 2005, which may have been the year I bought my first digital camera!)
Archive for football World Cup
sweet 60’s
Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags Édouard-Léon Scott de Martinville, celebrations, CMB, cosmic microwave background, Eric Moulines, FIFA, football World Cup, group picture, IHP, Institut Henri Poincaré, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, NeurIPS 2021, NYT, Paris, recording, The New York Times, Thomas Edison, Zeitschrift on October 9, 2023 by xi'anPoisson-Belgium 0-0
Posted in Statistics with tags Belgium, Brazil, data-analytics, Denmark, FIFA, football World Cup, Galway, Germany, Glasgow Celtics, Glasgow Rangers, Ireland, Mexico, Nature, prediction, Scotland, Switzerland, University of Glasgow, University of Oxford, Uruguay, Warwick Mathematics Institute on December 5, 2022 by xi'an“Statistical match predictions are more accurate than many people realize (…) For the upcoming Qatar World Cup, Penn’s model suggests that Belgium (…) has the highest chances of raising the famous trophy, followed by Brazil”
Even Nature had to get entries on the current football World cup, with a paper on data-analytics reaching football coaches and teams. This is not exactly prime news, as I remember visiting the Department of Statistics of the University of Glasgow in the mid 1990’s and chatting with a very friendly doctoral student who was consulting for the Glasgow Rangers (or Celtics?!) on the side at the time. And went back to Ireland to continue with a local team (Galway?!).
The paper reports on different modellings, including one double-Poisson model by (PhD) Matthew Penn from Oxford and (maths undergraduate) Joanna Marks from Warwick, which presumably resemble the double-Poisson version set by Leonardo Egidi et al. and posted on Andrews’ blog a few days ago. Following an earlier model by my friends Karlis & Ntzoufras in 2003. While predictive models can obviously fail, this attempt is missing Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Uruguay, and Denmark early elimination from the cup. One possible reason imho is that national teams do not play that often when players are employed by different clubs in many counties, hence are hard to assess, but I cannot claim any expertise or interest in the game.
