Archive for Fuji-san

X Fall²⁶ World Tour

Posted in Running, Statistics, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 21, 2026 by xi'an

As you may have noticed from previous entries, over the past three weeks I have been almost constantly travelling, with various but mostly large amounts of luck in my travels.

Starting with a Paris-Marseille round trip for our daughter birthday, where both trains ran on time with operational WiFi and Air conditioning (and the inevitable noisy junior passengers commuting back from their vacations).

Followed a few hours later by a Paris-Lugano round trip where again the stars aligned since the flight to Milano Malpensa was on time and landed 20mn before the only direct (flexi)bus to Lugano departed. Again in time. On the way back I had to leave right after my talk (apologies!) but got a direct (if slow) train to Milano and hopped the push via Montenapoleone (!) between two Milano metro lines to reach Milano Linate with one hour to go. On time again.

One day at home to sort various pump issues (from fixing all car injectors to replacing a drainage pump that failed to stop a massive rainstorm from entering our basement, to a flat bike tyre returning from PariSanté Campus) and then a quick weekend drive to Argentan, Normandy, for which the car managed and the traffic was surprisingly smooth for the last weekend of the national August vacation break), and where I enjoyed a long run in the woody hills, one month or so prior to the Argentan half-marathon, 30 years from my first participation. Enough time back home to cook a fresh, Norman, rhubarb preserve and off to to Durham, Northumbria, by another smooth, on-time, flight, with the small hitch of the RER B—just back from being closed for an entire month—unexpectedly finishing one station too early (and a particularly noisy family returning from one amusement park). And the same on the return, via Newcastle with a glimpse from the train of the Tyne and its iconic bridge. Reminding me of my visit there for the RSS meeting in 2013, travelling with Jim Hobert.

One more day at home and at work (teaching my first Monte Carlo class of the semester) and I was back in Charles de Gaulle airport for the flight to Tokyo Haneda. With enough time to have a second breakfast in the lounge and leave my phone on my seat!, fortunately recovered a few frantic minutes later. The flight took one hour less than expected, thanks to favourable winds, with the hitches of having no AC power plug available on the plane and no Wifi on either phone or laptop, a nuisance on a 12h day flight with a talk to polish. Going through customs at Haneda was even smoother than “usual” and I only took one wrong train on my way to Yokohama. (Which happened again the next days until I decided to stick Google map schedules, which are highly accurate and constantly updated). The only hitch of the trip was the attempt at bullet summiting Fuji-san, unsurprisingly as with most of my bullet attempts!, because the weather conditions were horrendous to the point of wardens turning people off at the entry of the Yoshida path and also to the point of inducing landslides on the unique route conducting to the 5th station. I thus got stuck there with 1600 people for a few hours until the route was reopened and the shuttle restarted, obviously with some further delays in entering the (third) bus, with more confusion and jostling than usual in Japan (but also with a large proportion of foreign hikers!). Taxis were not responding either and before the news came of the reopening I was getting worried about missing my flight! While the return saw no seamless connections and no express trains, leading to a total trip time close to 5 hours, incl. a cold soba stop at a station, I still managed to reach my Haneda hotel at check-in time and to have an intense training session on their treadmill to make up for the missing 15km and 1400⁺ climb. (Rescheduling my direct bus ticket on-line proved impossible from my phone without a local help as automated translation does not work with images.) The flight back to Paris went very smoothly by the Eastern route over the pole, with AC power (making my external battery delivered by amazon.jp fortunately superfluous since it is prohibited to use on AF flights) and Wifi running. Making my working on the paper associated with the Akaike lecture way more efficient.

お山は晴天 [not!]

Posted in Mountains, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 17, 2026 by xi'an


As a follow-up to the Akaike lecture, I was hoping to summit Fuji-san for my 65th B’day but it did not work out, thanks to a rain storm (remnant of a typhoon) keeping Fuji-san out of reach that day (and even blocking the access road for a few hours by causing a landslide). The warden were strongly discouraging all entries including mine’s, with reasonable arguments (that mountain rescue would be unavailable). I thus only experienced the less appealing aspects of Fuji’rism, from the predictable, gaudy souvenir shops at the stations, to some Western summiteers walking (and loudly talking) like decorated war heroes, to the crowded buses to access or leave the 5th station—I got stuck next to two French speaking Swiss boasting of their hike and travel experiences in Japan, entitled, obnoxious, and entirely oblivious to the fact that they were the loudest people on the bus!, to the noisy hostel where it seemed a group was departing every half-hour of the short night (even though in the end only four people got access to the trail and ended up turning back). With no glimpse of Fuji-san the entire stay. The title is a traditional sentence hoping for a clear day when summiting Fuji-san.

Nature tidbits [20 Aug 2026]

Posted in Books, Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 16, 2026 by xi'an

In this 20 August edition, a wealth of data analysis papers, with many highly informative graphs. A call for China to better balance recognition for its junior scientists, another call for (US?) universities to treat bullying complaints in-depth rather than as a public relation exercise. The “compulsory” current status of the Trump 2.0 wreckage of US science with the Senate blocking the appointment of politicians for grant reviews. And with the absurd, ungrounded, health threatening split of the MMR vaccine.  Another “compulsory” entry on climate change with a scary graph on the ocean surface temperatures rising way way above the confidence band represented by the previous measurements over 50 years. An interview (why?) of a CEO of the startup QED Science that claims an ability to automatically rank preprints and select the top 1% (why?!). Coïnciding with me receiving an email with a review by Claude of our Bayesian Adversarial Privacy paper! A report on the (defunct Starmer) UK Government cutting on fundamental physics projects. An article featuring the predicted rise in the use of exoskeletons, which I read on my way back from the lodge on Mount Fudji that was renting an exoskeleton to help with the climb! With an optimistic view on the consequences on people’s health and muscles. A short book review on Slobodian’s and Tarnoff’s Muskism, concluding that Musk(ism) lacks a coherent philosophy. (A Musk-read according to the Economist!) A long comment on the sleepless summer of the heatwaves, which led me clearly more tired than usual at the end of the summer break. (With a lot of should. And a focus on methodology.) Another one on the Middle East prospects as a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) hub, which sounds paradoxical in the current geopolitic situation. It made me wonder how sustainable are these SAFs? True, they recycle oils, gases and biomass, rather than extracting “new” oils, but they still pollute the air. And, true, they can fill empty returning tankers, but they divert investment and research from more renewable and less polluting alternatives. Among the actual scientific articles, a long review on the safety and security of LLMs in healthcare (but useless pictures). One on the massive floods that occurred in Europe in 1342-1343, possibly caused by volcanic eruptions plus Arctic sea ice retreat, nothing that could occur today of course! With massive socio-economic consequences. (And a great graph, except I do not see the point for the 2D projections. Or for modern state borders.) An analysis of intergenerational mobility in Europe with the unsurprising conclusion that it impacts innovation. (Go, Erasmus!) With a multivariate regression I did not investigate (using NUTS but not Andrew’s NUTS!). And graphs of intergenerational mobility per European country, with too many colours to be readable (and the regression line to make sense?). Another data analysis of the Pakistan Genome Resource, with distinctive traits of the many ethnicities of Pakistan. And the discovery of many clinically relevant genes (with a massive avalanche of p-values!).

Information Geometry, Privacy and Monte Carlo workshop, ISM, 6-7 July 2026

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 8, 2026 by xi'an

Although some of the participants of the workshop left for ICML²⁶ or the 4th Bayesian Nonparametrics networking workshop, both taking place in Seoul this week, the following days of the workshop were as intense and captivating as the first two, with a return to MCMC “basics” but also more geometrical and maethematical aspects.

To wit, Radu Craiu talked on MCMC for DAG processes with revisiting the landmark paper of Geyer & Møller (1994) on replacing discrete time MCMC with a birth & death process and cutting on complexity by restricted set imposing some edges, set from a redetermined run. Galin Jones presented some (novel) Lower bounds on the rate of convergence for accept-reject-based Markov chains in Wasserstein and total variation distances, showing the massive dependence of the convergence rates on the scaling factors of the proposal, especially in relation with the data size n when considering posterior targets. James Flegal discussed Simultaneous confidence bands for (MC)MC simulations that aimed at returning a confidence band on marginal density estimates; it reminded me of our 2005 simultaneous coverage paper with Wilfrid Kendall and Jean-Michel Marin and got me wondering why not going full Bayes by adopting a GP prior modelling.

Michiko Okudo spoke about Applications of information geometry to Bayesian prediction and estimation in curved exponential families, returning to point estimation with a mention of Marchand & Strawderman (2025)! Marta Catalano presented results on Distances on random measures for Bayesian nonparametrics, involving random measures like Dirichlet processes, that was connected with Hugo Lavenant’s talk at ISBA, but more focussed on the mathematical aspects albeit algorithmic aspects were mentioned. With highly intuitive arguments (making the accronym WoW for Wasserstein on Wasserstein quite appropriate!).

Takemasa Miyoshi made a presentation of the Osaka Expo 2025 Weather [prediction] on Fugaku: Synergizing Big Data Assimilation and AIRIKEN, with impressive predictive abilities achieved using RIKEN super-computer (but no technical details). Björn Sprung exposed how they obtained Dimension-independent MCMC [convergence speed] on the sphere, using retroprojections of random walks outside the sphere (as in Frederica’s talk yesterday), which comes as a surprise given the deterioration of random walk performances with increasing dimensions.

Geoffrey Wolfer’s Characterization of Exponential Families of Lumpable Stochastic Matrices was a very mathematical talk set firmly in the Japanese probability school, going too fast with too many new definitions for my abilities (and attention span) but setting the scene for exponential families on stochastic matrices and being one of the rate cases I eve rsaw lumpability à la Kemeny & Snell (1983) mentionned! Daniel Paulin followed with Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics: convergence and bias, via an UBU algorithm using splitting integrators that sound very much like the leapfrog for an HMC with unscented Langevin steps where the gradient is replaced with an unbiased estimator (connecting to the poster of Jack Jewson on Sunday, when he mentioned the opposition between pseudo-marginal MCMC, requiring an unbiased estimator of the target, and schemes using the log-target, for which unbiased estimators of the log can be used). Shahab Asoodeh concluded Monday with Recent Advances in Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms, actually developing multi-marginal coupling with freely coupling chains.

On the final morning, Weiming Feng showed results about a Faster mixing of the Jerrum-Sinclair chain, reminding me of the 1989 paper, with a Metropolis algorithm on graphs allowing for specific mixing time results with spectral gap and log-Sobolev inequalities (and a Poincáre typo!). Michael Choi produced convergence properties by Optimising two-block averaging kernels to speed up Markov chains, with a (rather formal) Gibbs sampler on orbits (in a finite state space) again connecting to Jerrum.

Yuga Iguchi discussed Diffusion models for high-dimensional clustered data: Intrinsic-dimension adaptivity via Bayesian classification, producing a rigorous characterisation of the phase transition property of their diffusion denoising probabilistic model when the target is a mixture with separation constraints on the components, phase transition meaning that eventually concentrating on a single cluster as the forward diffusion moves toward pure noise. (Although being fully awake, having mostly recovered from the longest jetlag period ever, I had trouble understanding the process per se.) Edric Tam discussed Fundamental Limits to Neural Monte Carlo by returning to standard variance reduction techniques like stratifying and antithetic-ying (!) and applying normalising flows on them. Victor Elvira concluded the meeting by Rethinking self-normalized importance sampling, with a fun interlude of Eric Veach’s Oscars joke, but I unfortunately had to miss the end to gather my bags and leave for the Alps! But Victor should be in Paris in the Fall and hopfefully giving a talk at mostly Monte Carlo!

This workshop was most efficiently supported by the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and its staff, including over the weekend days! On a personal foodie note, the coffee breaks featured the same unbelievable matcha cakes (“Chez Kobe”) as at ISBA²⁶, we enjoyed a terrific full tofu dinner at Umenohana Tachikawa shop and there were plenty French (or pseudo-French) bakeries in Tachekima, enough to find rye (raimugi) bread for breakfast!

registration opens for ISBA 2026 Satellite at the Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 15, 2026 by xi'an