Archive for latent variable

insufficient Gibbs sampling bridges as well!

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, R, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 3, 2024 by xi'an

Antoine Luciano, Robin Ryder and I posted a revised version of our insufficient Gibbs sampler on arXiv last week (along with three other revisions or new deposits of mine’s!), following comments and suggestions from referees. Thanks to this revision, we realised that the evidence based on an (insufficient) statistic was also available for approximation by a Monte Carlo estimate attached to the completed sample simulated by the insufficient sampler. Better, a bridge sampling estimator can be used in the same conditions as when the full data is available! In this new version, we thus revisited toy examples first explored in some of my ABC papers on testing (with insufficient statistics), as illustrated by both graphs on this post.

insufficient Gibbs at One World ABC [25/01]

Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 22, 2024 by xi'an

The next [on-line] One World Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Seminar will be delivered by Antoine Luciano, currently writing his PhD with Robin Ryder and I. It will take place at 9am, UK/GMT time, on Thursday 25 January, with members of the stats lab here in CEREMADE attending Antoine’s lecture live at the PariSanté campus. Here is the abstract for the talk:

In some applied scenarios, the availability of complete data is restricted, often due to privacy concerns, and only aggregated, robust and inefficient statistics derived from the data are accessible. These robust statistics are not sufficient, but they demonstrate reduced sensitivity to outliers and offer enhanced data protection due to their higher breakdown point. In this article, operating within a parametric framework, we propose a method to sample from the posterior distribution of parameters conditioned on different robust and inefficient statistics: specifically, the pairs (median, MAD) or (median, IQR), or one or more quantiles. Leveraging a Gibbs sampler and the simulation of latent augmented data, our approach facilitates simulation according to the posterior distribution of parameters belonging to specific families of distributions. We demonstrate its applicability on the Gaussian, Cauchy, and translated Weibull families.

based on our recent arXival.

insufficient Gibbs sampling

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 29, 2023 by xi'an

We have just arXived our paper on insufficient Gibbs sampling with Antoine Luciano and Robin Ryder, from Université Paris Dauphine. This is Antoine’s first paper and part of his PhD. (In particular, he wrote the entire code.) The idea stemmed from a discussion on ABC benchmarks, like the one when the pair (median, MAD) is the only available observation. With no available joint density, the setting seems to prohibit calling for an MCMC sampler. However, simulating the complete data set conditional on these statistics proves feasible, with a bit of bookkeeping. With obviously much better results [demonstrated above for a Cauchy example] than when calling ABC and at a very similar cost. (If not accounting for the ability of ABC to be parallelised.)  The idea can be extended to other settings, obviously, as long as completion remains achievable. (And a big thanks to our friend Ed George who suggested the title, while at CIRM. I had suggested “Gibbs for boars” as a poster title, in connection with the historical time-line of

Gibbs for Kids (Casella and George) — Gibbs for Pigs (Gianola) — Gibbs for Robust Pigs = Gibbs for Boars

and the abundance of boars on the Luminy campus, but this did not sound convincing enough for Antoine.)

more of the same!

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on December 10, 2015 by xi'an

aboriginal artist, NGV, Melbourne, July 30, 2012Daniel Seita, Haoyu Chen, and John Canny arXived last week a paper entitled “Fast parallel SAME Gibbs sampling on general discrete Bayesian networks“.  The distributions of the observables are defined by full conditional probability tables on the nodes of a graphical model. The distributions on the latent or missing nodes of the network are multinomial, with Dirichlet priors. To derive the MAP in such models, although this goal is not explicitly stated in the paper till the second page, the authors refer to the recent paper by Zhao et al. (2015), discussed on the ‘Og just as recently, which applies our SAME methodology. Since the paper is mostly computational (and submitted to ICLR 2016, which takes place juuust before AISTATS 2016), I do not have much to comment about it. Except to notice that the authors mention our paper as “Technical report, Statistics and Computing, 2002”. I am not sure the editor of Statistics and Computing will appreciate! The proper reference is in Statistics and Computing, 12:77-84, 2002.

“We argue that SAME is beneficial for Gibbs sampling because it helps to reduce excess variance.”

Still, I am a wee bit surprised at both the above statement and at the comparison with a JAGS implementation. Because SAME augments the number of latent vectors as the number of iterations increases, so should be slower by a mere curse of dimension,, slower than a regular Gibbs with a single latent vector. And because I do not get either the connection with JAGS: SAME could be programmed in JAGS, couldn’t it? If the authors means a regular Gibbs sampler with no latent vector augmentation, the comparison makes little sense as one algorithm aims at the MAP (with a modest five replicas), while the other encompasses the complete posterior distribution. But this sounds unlikely when considering that the larger the number m of replicas the better their alternative to JAGS. It would thus be interesting to understand what the authors mean by JAGS in this setup!

two correlated pseudo-marginals for the price of one!

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , on November 30, 2015 by xi'an

Within two days, two papers on using correlated auxiliary random variables for pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings, one by George Deligiannidis, Arnaud Doucet, Michael Pitt, and Robert Kohn, and another one by Johan Dahlin, Fredrik Lindsten, Joel Kronander, and Thomas Schön! They both make use of the Crank-Nicholson proposal on the auxiliary variables, which is a shrunk Gaussian random walk or an autoregressive model of sorts, and possibly transform these auxiliary variables by inverse cdf or something else.

“Experimentally, the efficiency of computations is increased relative to the standard pseudo-marginal algorithm by up to 180-fold in our simulations.” Deligiannidis et al. 

The first paper by Deligiannidis et al. aims at reducing the variance of the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance ratio by correlating the auxiliary variables. While the auxiliary variable can be of any dimension, all that matters is its transform into a (univariate) estimate of the density, used as pseudo-marginal at each iteration. However, if a Markov kernel is used for proposing new auxiliary variables, the sequence of the pseudo-marginal is no longer a Markov chain. Which implies looking at the auxiliary variables. Nonetheless, they manage to derive a CLT on the log pseudo-marginal estimate, for a latent variable model with sample size growing to infinity. Based on this CLT, they control the correlation in the Crank-Nicholson proposal so that the asymptotic variance  is of order one:  this correlation has to converge to 1 as 1-exp(-χN/T), where N is the number of Monte Carlo samples for T time intervals. Those results extend to the bootstrap particle filter. Upon reflection, it makes much sense aiming for a high correlation since the unbiased estimator of the target hardly changes from one iteration to the next (but needs to move for the method to be validated by Metropolis-Hastings arguments). The two simulation experiments showed massive gains following this scheme, as reported in the above quote.

“[ABC] can be used to approximate the log-likelihood using importance sampling and particle filtering. However, in practice these estimates suffer from a large variance with results in bad mixing for the Markov chain.” Dahlin et al.

In the second paper, which came a day later, presumably induced by the first paper, acknowledged from the start, the authors also make use of the Crank-Nicholson proposal on the auxiliary variables, which is a shrunk Gaussian random walk, and possibly transform these auxiliary variables by inverse cdf or something else. The central part of the paper is about tuning the scale in the Crank-Nicholson proposal, in the spirit of Gelman, Gilks and Roberts (1996). Since all that matters is the (univariate) estimate of the density used as pseudo-marginal, The authors approximate the law of the log-density by a Gaussian distribution, despite the difficulty with the “projected” Markov chain, thus looking for the optimal scaling but only achieving a numerical optimisation rather than the equivalent of the golden number of MCMC acceptance probabilities, 0.234. Although in a sense the above should be the goal for the auxiliary variable acceptance rate, when those are of high enough dimension. One thing I could not find in this paper is how much (generic) improvement is gathered from this modification from an iid version. (Another is linked with the above quote, which I find difficult to understand as ABC is not primarily intended as a pseudo-marginal method. In a sense it is the worst possible pseudo-marginal estimator in that it uses estimators taking values in {0,1}…)