Archive for The Black Swan

AI Narratives [book review]

Posted in Books with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 13, 2025 by xi'an

AI Narratives: A history of imaginative thinking about intelligent machines is a 2020 collective book edited by Stephen Cave, Kanta Dihal, and Sarah Dillon, with about twenty contributing authors, through a series of 16 chapters on the relation between culture (literature, films) and our societal approach to AI, with varying perspectives, some overlap between chapters, a wide range of extrapolation, especially in relation with the oldest books (like Homer’s) and quotes from both books I enjoyed and books I had not heard of, to add to my to-red pile, like Roderick. Predominant place of Blade Runner, of Ĉapek’s Rossum’s Universal Robots, not only for introducing the term, and of Asimov, but also a detailed analysis of the great, thought-provoking, Ann Leckie’s Ancillary Justice. With a realization that Gibson’s Neuromancer had aged quite a lot… For the modern times, very little outside the US-UK realm, as for instance no mention made of Jules Verne or René Barjavel, although Zola makes an appearance when describing workers as automats, neither of the Germanic literature (from the Grimm Brothers onwards), nor of the non-negligible USSR science fiction production, nor yet of the Chinese input, like The three body problem. Other books that could have made it: the Murderbot diaries, and The Alchemy Wars trilogy, for digging into the blurry border between humans and AIs; A Memory Called Empire, for a clever approach to mind uploading, as well as the masterly Never let me go by Ishiguro, both dealing with a future where copies of humans The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay for the golem, the short story An Unatural Life, for its highly original take on the legal rights of humanoid robots, A Psalm for the Wild-Built because of… tea and Zen monk, obviously!

Among things I learned from AI Narratives, the story of Alan Turing (figuratively) mansplaining Ada Lovelace on her pronouncement that machines cannot be intelligent since they deliver what they are coded for. The mention of automatos in the Illiad. A mention of 1625 Gabriel Naudé Apologie &tc. that excludes magic as irrational, as well as introducing the term androide. The trivia that the creator of the (fraudulent) automaton chess player, Kempelen, also produced in 1791 an authentic if brainless speaking machine. The realisation that E.M Forster also wrote a futuristic novel, The Machine Stops (as well as the precursor of the symbolists, Villiers de l’Isle Adam, with L’Ève Future). Another trivia that cyberpunk first appeared in a 1983 short story by Bruce Bethke. A discussion of the elaborate Culture constructed by Iain Banks, albeit through volumes in the series I hade not read, along with the concept of OCP for outside context problem, akin to Taleb’s Black Swan. The least interesting (and final) chapter in the book is paradoxically the closest to data analysis, when Recchia runs a rather low-tech assessment of a subtitle dataset in relation with AI, if referring to Tufte’s rule of the baselin in the notes (p405).

Definitely enjoyable book, then, even though I mostly skimmed through the chapters during a day-trip to Lille on a Bank (!) holiday. Reading through it made me muse rather belatedly of a parallel between AI scare or adoration, and the non-AI societies, where individuals are (also) part of a structure large enough to miss the larger picture. From building pyramids to being part of the global economy. (This followed mostly from my surprise in seeing Dickens, Trollope, and Zola included in the discussion.)

[Disclaimer about potential self-plagiarism: this post or an edited version will eventually appear in my Books Review section in CHANCE.]

Texan black swan

Posted in Books, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , on September 12, 2017 by xi'an

“Un événement improbable aux conséquences d’autant plus désastreuses que l’on ne s’y est pas préparé.”

This weekend, there was a short article in Le Monde about the Harvey storm as a Texan illustration of Taleb’s black swan. An analysis that would imply every extreme event like this “once-in-a-thousand year” event (?) can be called a black swan… “An improbable event with catastrophic consequences, the more because it had not been provisioned”, as the above quote translates. Ironically, there is another article in the same journal, about the catastrophe being “ordinary” and “not unexpected”! While such massive floods are indeed impacting a huge number of people and companies, because the storm happened to pour an unusual amount of rain right on top of Houston, they indeed remain within the predictable and not so improbable in terms of the amount of water deposited in the area and in terms of damages, given the amount and style of construction over flood plains. For instance, Houston is less than 50 feet above sea level, has fairly old drainage and pipe systems, and lacks a zoning code. With mostly one or two-story high buildings rather than higher rises. (Incidentally, I appreciated the juxtaposition of the article with the add for Le Monde des Religions and its picture of a devilesque black goat!)

 

book based on a single well-known concept [smbc repost]

Posted in Books, Kids with tags , , , , , on December 26, 2016 by xi'an

falling asleep in/on the bed of Procrustes

Posted in Books with tags , , , , , , , on November 11, 2012 by xi'an

Frankly, I must admit I bought this new book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb out of sheer perversity, as I am quite prejudiced against the author’s stance as a cynic (in the philosophical sense), delivering drops of antique wisdom to the modern World from his ivory tower… Having made a living from the financial system he despises so much. The description of himself “as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet” found on the flip-cover of the book did nothing to decrease this prejudice. (Nor did the fact that the editors thought relevant to quote the magazine GQ in support of the book!)

The book is a collection of aphorisms on themes dear to Taleb like randomness, religion, capitalism, culture, media, love… At 100 pages of roughly 4 aphorisms per page, this makes the cost of an aphorism in the bed of Procrustes a par with the one of a fortune cookie, with the difference that you can at least eat the cookie if the message does not suit you. (Hence an easy pun on cheap philosophy sold dear.) Indeed, the art of the aphorism is a subtle one and very few can reach the depth of Pascal, Nietzsche, or Cioran…  I do not think Taleb comes any near this level: his aphorisms fall flat and dead, having none of the impact that could drive one’s life or even one’s current day-life. Take for instance “There is no intermediate state between ice and water but there is one between life and death: employment” (p.8). What does this sentence convey? That being employed by a company, which is the case for most of our contemporaries, is a semi-death. Or a form of modern slavery. (There are other aphorisms with the same underlying idea.) Great: Now what should we do about it?! Turn all people into self-entrepreneurs?! Tag employees as suckers and members of the lower class or cast and despise them from our lofty ivory tower or a trendy boulevard Saint-Germain café?! Take again “Marriage is the institutional process of feminizing men—and feminizing women“. Even though I presume this pearl of wisdom considers solely heterosexual marriage, I have serious trouble understanding what this means and in which sense this is a criticism of marriage… Does this imply we should switch to the more macho tradition of bride rapts?! (Again, there are other aphorisms with similar sexist undertones, e.g. p.38,  p.95, p.99 or p.103.) I could go on like that for almost every entry in the book…

Hence this unsubtle title to the post: while I realise how dangerous it is to fall asleep in Procrustes’ bed, I sort of fell asleep on the bed of Procrustes, at least figuratively!  I (again) see no point in this collection of aphorisms as they only serve to illustrate both the huge ego of the author and his aristocratic views on life and society. And to surf on the editorial success of the Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness. In conclusion, I got just what I was looking for! However, I see no point in recommending a book where the author scorns with “polite disdain” at least 99% of his contemporaries…

17 equations that changed the World (#2)

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 16, 2012 by xi'an

(continuation of the book review)

“If you placed your finger at that point, the two halves of the string would still be able to vibrate in the sin 2x pattern, but not in the sin x one. This explains the Pythagorean discovery that a string half as long produced a note one octave higher.” (p.143)

The following chapters are all about Physics: the wave equation, Fourier’s transform and the heat equation, Navier-Stokes’ equation(s), Maxwell’s equation(s)—as in  The universe in zero word—, the second law of thermodynamics, E=mc² (of course!), and Schrödinger’s equation. I won’t go so much into details for those chapters, even though they are remarkably written. For instance, the chapter on waves made me understand the notion of harmonics in a much more intuitive and lasting way than previous readings. (This chapter 8 also mentions the “English mathematician Harold Jeffreys“, while Jeffreys was primarily a geophysicist. And a Bayesian statistician with major impact on the field, his Theory of Probability arguably being the first modern Bayesian book. Interestingly, Jeffreys also was the first one to find approximations to the Schrödinger’s equation, however he is not mentioned in this later chapter.) Chapter 9 mentions the heat equation but is truly about Fourier’s transform which he uses as a tool and later became a universal technique. It also covers Lebesgue’s integration theory, wavelets, and JPEG compression. Chapter 10 on Navier-Stokes’ equation also mentions climate sciences, where it takes a (reasonable) stand. Chapter 11 on Maxwell’s equations is a short introduction to electromagnetism, with radio the obvious illustration. (Maybe not the best chapter in the book.) Continue reading →