Archive for David Spiegelhalter

permutations accelerate ABC!

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 9, 2025 by xi'an

Yesterday a arXival by Antoine Luciano, Charly Andral (both PhD students, now or then, at Paris Dauphine), Robin Ryder (formerly at Paris Dauphine, now at Imperial College London) and myself got posted. It proposes to improve the scalability of ABC methods by exploiting the (full or partial) exchangeability in the data by implementing permutation-based matching between observed and simulated samples. This significantly improves computational efficiency, which is further enhanced by sequential strategies such as over-sampling, which facilitates early-stage acceptance by temporarily increasing the number of simulated compartments, and under-matching, which relaxes the acceptance condition by matching only subsets of the data. The map of France appears in connection with an application of the method to estimating SIR parameters, department by department. (It is also reminding me of the cover of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in practice, the 1996 contributed book edited by Wally Gilks, Sylvia Richardson and David Spiegelhalter.)

Nature tidbits [Jan 2025]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 13, 2025 by xi'an

Entries of these two January issues on

– yet another 100th anniversary!, namely the founding paper of Heisenberg’s quantum mechanics paper in Zeitschrift für Physik, written on the Instagrammable island of Heligoland. With celebrations at the UNESCO in Paris, Anaheim (CA), Kumasi (Ghana), and Salvador de Bahia (Brazil)!;

– some bird species decorating their nest with shed snakeskins, to frighten predators;

– climate predictions for Trump 2.0, albeit the only certainty being it will get worse and worse (and only the beginning of a flow of articles on the Trumpian attacks on science and scientists);

– the curious plight of the open access journal elife loosing its impact factor after getting too open for Clarivate and then seeing submission from China falter;

– the first European cities from 6000 years ago being found in Ukraine (and Romania) within the Cucuteni-Trypillia culture, with apparently an equalitarian structure with no temple or elite, although the lack of written documents (besides beautiful clay figures whose style evolved over the period);

  • an AI tool that interprets spreadsheets (which I would find most useful, given my distaste of said spreadsheets!);

and how to help lab workers facing substance disorders. And break the attached taboos. Which reminded me of a colleague in that situation when I was head of a lab, years and years ago. And of the difficulty of handling the case all by myself…

Also

– a quick report on a Physics Review Letters paper about simulating elections results to spot whether or not margins of victory were properly distributed, having a distribution (for the scaled margins) mostly depending on voter turnout, with a universal shape! The concept behind this analysis is one of universality borrowed from statistical physics. (The fit does not work for the Ethiopian election of 2010 and the Belarus elections during 2004–2019, no wonder!);

– another book review of David Spiegelhalter’s Art of Uncertainty, by Yongyi Min, a statistician from the UN Statistics Division;

  • creating a DNA base for identifying children kidnapped during a conflict, as for the 20,000 Ukrainian children forcibly deported to Russia over the past three years;

  • a substantial survey article on neuromorphic computing (submitted in 2023!), about new forms of computing based on hardware/software co-design;

  • with more technologies to watch in 2025, and another long article (and the cover) on the strong impact of small-scale fisheries on sustainable development.

     

    The Art of Uncertainty [not my book review]

    Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on October 26, 2024 by xi'an

    The Guardian published earlier this week a general public review of David Spiegelhalter’s most recent book, The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck, about to be published by W. W. Norton & Company (according to Amazon). A review written by John Naughton, staying rather general (with the main examples selected for the review being the birthday problem, and the typing monkey not doing great after 1300 days hitting one key per second at random) and constantly positive, which is not surprising given David’s talents at telling tales about our trade! (And with deeper comments by David Hand and Adrian Smith.)  Coïncidence or correlation? David also had a new entry in his philosophy column the very same week, about luck (in plane accidents and in the sequence of lucky events that led to his being born). The cover refers to double yolkers, a great example of apparent luck that David has used many times as not so random! (Warning: there are several books sharing the same title!)

    COVID by numbers [not a book review]

    Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , on October 13, 2021 by xi'an

    David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters have made a book out of their COVID related columns in The Observer. Here are ten key figures extracted from that book:

    1. The UK was hit by more than 1,000 separate outbreaks (…) [with] far more imports of Sars-CoV-2 from France, Italy and Spain than from China
    2. Reported Covid deaths depend on the day of the week (due to delayed reporting, and a weekend effect, but smoothing is very rarely applied)
    3. In the first year of Covid, over-90s had 35,000 times the risk of dying of Covid-19 as young children (with no relevance of the figure per se since an extra death of a young child would have moved it from 35,000 to 32,000, since there were thankfully so few deaths of young children)
    4. 2020 saw the highest number of deaths since 1918 in England and Wales (even when correcting for population increase or population ageing)
    5. The UK has led the World in testing Covid treatments (like dexamethasone and hydroxychloroquine, thanks to the centralised NHS, making me wonder why France with another centralised and public health structure was not able to do the same)
    6. People who have died with Covid have on average lost about 10 years of life (contrary to the authors’ intial hunch, and mine as well, to oppose to the less relevant loss of life expectancy across the entire population)
    7. Most people died “of” Covid rather than “with” it, but most have also had other medical conditions (with 91% of pre-COVID conditions)
    8. Alcohol consumption stayed the same during lockdown (which came as a surprise, given the general feeling for the opposite, and still as a worrying indicator of alcoholism)
    9. Most people with Sars-CoV-2 don’t infect anyone (which would need more details, as the figure should be weighted by the base probability to infect someone)
    10. The pandemic has been a net lifesaver for young people (with 300 fewer deaths for 15-29 year old, but it also has had a potentially negative impact on their life expectancy).

    lunch with David [and Meursault]

    Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 1, 2021 by xi'an

    “My real beef, my real anger, is that hugely expensive programmes like test and trace did not have built in, right from the beginning, a capacity for experimental evaluation. They should have been running studies, different methodologies, different ways of tracing. As it is, we don’t know what benefit it’s had. It’s like rolling out vaccines without ever measuring whether they have an effect or not. For Heaven’s sake!”