Archive for preregistered experiments

Nature tidbits [and garbage out]

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 25, 2024 by xi'an

Many bits of interest in the 25 July issue of Nature that stayed under a pile of journals for PNW reasons! Even though the cover is rather off-putting…

  • A call by the editors (and computer scientist Cal Newport) for scientists to “stop, drop, and think” (and the paperback version of Newport’s Slow Productivity has a nice cover that looks very much like Moraine Lake in Banff National Parc!)
  • Another call by a Science Po’ sociologist to the (then highly prospective) French government to increase research budget for French universities, which is not particularly original since this is a constant line on all unions’ desiderata, except for the argument that it would make a tuition fees increase more palatable, and to leave more freedom to researchers, with the oft-used argument that “fundamental research may have unexpected implications”. Except that a massive public deficit is going to impose budget squeezes in all spending lines of the Barnier government.
  • Worries of Indian and non-Indian demographers about the continued postponement of India’s national census, with the latest one dating from 2011. With strong repercussions on public policies, especially since the administrative data systems are rarely reliable. The article suggests that more than an estimated 100 million inhabitants are excluded from food subsidies as a consequence. This seems like an opportunity to develop open source alternatives that run the census from indirect observations, bypassing the reluctance of the Modi Government to launch the much delayed census. (Which could have been coupled with the electoral process earlier this year.)
  • An insight on four female “PhD influencers” from the Universities of Pennsylvania, Exeter, Hertfordshire, and Hong Kong (CUHK). Which has a plus side of exposing the life and interests of a PhD student. And a downside of being a social media product, with the many biases that come along posting to the general public.
  • A call for publishing more papers about negative results! Supporting (pre)registration of experiments.
  • A positive book review of The MANIAC of Benjamin Labatut around John von Neumann’s life, analysed by Karl Sigmund
  • A four-page long comment on the importance of preserving scientific US-China relations, despite the growing suspicion in the US that any scientific collaboration with Chinese institutions will benefit Chinese (State) interests. Without falling for a naive approach to such collaborations, and acknowledging the porous boundaries between fundamental and military research, one should acknowledge the great leap forward accomplished by Chinese universities in the past decade that set their researchers at the forefront of science in many fields.
  • A paper related with the cover on model collapse in AIs learning from AI-generated data. Just like MCMC learning a proposal from earlier simulations. A natural consequence of over-fitting.
  • Another paper on the phase (or quantum) transition of the two-dimensional Ising spin glass (model).
  • and the article on predatory conferences I already discussed in August.

Nature [5 Jan issue]

Posted in Books, pictures, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 17, 2023 by xi'an

Nature in its 5 Jan issue has an editorial by Daniël Lakens asking for statistical reviews prior to research being performed and data being collected which sounds like a reasonable idea provided reviewers with proper expertise and dedication can be found, an issue the editorial does not mention. Main focus on sample size that sounds overly simplistic… it contains the following funny (?) jab:

“I do not propose that reviewers debate matters as such as frequentist versus Bayesian philosophies of statistics.”

One could see a connexion with preregistered trials, with the sound argument that hypotheses should be clearly stated prior to getting data.

The issue also contains an open-access paper by WHO and U of Washington researchers (incl. Bayesian John Wakefield) on estimating the number of COVID-19 deaths from excess deaths. With the issue that data is missing for some countries. With a critical commentary from Enrique Acosta on not adjusting for avoided deaths. And apparently (and surprisingly) not accounting for age structure in each country, esp. since regression is involved. The modelling is done via a Poisson count model. And analysed by Bayesian methods. As often I wonder why France doesn’t feature in the picture, except for a mention that the ratio of excess deaths to COVID-19 deaths is less than one, and French Guiana is not on the maps… Unclear issues about highly reliable countries like Germany and Sweden. And splines… Instead of Gaussian processes. No attempt at capture recapture?

And a somewhat puzzling paper [rewarded by the journal cover] on diminishing disruption of scientific papers over time. It is sort of obvious that as the numbers explode novelty and impact diminish. If only because an increasing number of papers never get cited. Based on a single CD index (with a typo in the formula!) Nothing about maths? As noted by the authors in their conclusion the sheer number of disruptive papers had remained essentially constant…

unrejected null [xkcd]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , on July 18, 2018 by xi'an