Archive for The Prairie Chair

mostly Monte Carlo [09/10, PSC]

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 4, 2026 by xi'an

The next episode of our mostly Monte Carlo seminar is next Friday (9 October) at PariSanté Campus (room #8) with speakers

15:00 – Víctor Elvira, University of Edinburgh

16:00 – Edoardo Bandoni, Université Paris Dauphine-PSL

Víctor Elvira, “Rethinking self-normalized importance sampling”

Self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) is one of the most widely used Monte Carlo techniques for inference with unnormalized target distributions. Despite its usefulness, SNIS is often viewed simply as a normalized version of ordinary importance sampling, and many of its methodological questions remain largely unexplored. In this talk, we revisit SNIS from a unified perspective. We first introduce a generalized formulation of self-normalized importance sampling based on coupled proposals, showing that the classical SNIS estimator is only one member of a broader family of Monte Carlo estimators with new opportunities for variance reduction. We then consider the classical SNIS estimator and present adaptive algorithms that learn proposals tailored to its optimal proposal distribution, together with theoretical guarantees including consistency, asymptotic normality, and convergence of the proposal. Together, these developments suggest that self-normalized importance sampling should be regarded as a distinct Monte Carlo methodology, with its own theory, optimality principles, and algorithmic design.

Edoardo Bandoni, “Rate-Optimal Randomised Kernel Quadrature”

Kernel quadrature is widely used to approximate integrals of smooth functions, with the worst-case error typically decaying at the minimax rate n-α/d for smoothness α in dimension d. Existing rate-optimal methods often depend on deterministic point sets tailored to a specific kernel, making them sensitive to misspecification and less robust in practice. In this work, we study randomised quadrature methods with a focus on robustness rather than kernel-specific optimality. By minimising a tractable upper bound on the worst-case error, we obtain an explicit sampling distribution p*∝ πg with g=2d/(2α+d), which depends on the integration density π and on a but not on the kernel beyond its Sobolev order. Under a weak doubling condition on the design measure, independent samples from p* attain the minimax rate n-α/d. These assumptions cover a broad class of targets on compact and unbounded domains; we verify them explicitly for Beta-type densities, Gaussian measures, and Student-t distributions, the last of which yields the minimax rate n-min(α,(n+d/2)/d. This kernel-agnostic design improves robustness while maintaining optimal rates, and it applies beyond compact domains. The results provide both theoretical guarantees and a practical recipe for robust, rate-optimal randomised quadrature.

Bayesian, adversarial, oceanic, privacy

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 6, 2026 by xi'an

We just arXived a new paper on Bayesian privacy! We meaning Cameron Bell, Antoine Luciano, Timothy Johnston and myself, as members of my ERC OCEAN lab at PariSanté and Paris Dauphine. While sharing the same ground as my recent paper with James Bailie, Joshua Bon and Judith Rousseau, this one is definitely more mainstream Bayesian in that the entire decision process falls under the Bayesian hat, with the ultimate decision being the choice of the release mechanism by the data holder (or hoarder!). To rationalise this decision process, we break the framework as resulting from the actions of three actors, namely the data holder, Alice, the data scientist, Bob, and the eavesdropper. Eve. (As in my earlier posts on solving Le Monde’s math puzzles, we could have used pronouns from other cultures, but I feared this would have confused some of the readers. Incidentally, I found out that the earliest use of the first two pronouns was within the groundbreaking cryptography 1977 paper of Rivest, Shamir and Adleman, bringing the RSA algorithm to the World! With Eve appearing in an early, highly-cited privacy paper by Montréal’s Bennett, Brassard, and (unconnected to me!) Robert, in 1988.)

We thus consider a Bayesian setting in which, given data x, held by Alice, inference is to be performed by Bob on a parameter θ. Performing such inference requires Alice releasing information derived from x, which may contain sensitive content, exploited by Eve. Our approach is to compare Alice’s release mechanisms according to both the quality of inference on θ (from Bob’s viewpoint) and the privacy leakage regarding x (sought by Eve and dreaded by Alice). To formalise this evaluation, we posit that Alice refers to a loss function that is a linear combination of Bob’s and Eve’s losses, the weight on Eve’s loss being then negative. (An alternative to be considered in future work is Alice using a ratio of Bob’s and Eve’s losses, possibly set to different powers, the rationale being that a zero loss for Eve is intolerable for Alice.) As in Bayesian experimental design, a prior on the data is necessary for Eve to infer on the hidden data based on the release mechanism and released output and for Alice to evaluate the risk of said release mechanism . (They may differ, as long as they are both made public.) To calibrate Alice’s loss, we opted for a balance that returns the same risk for a full data release and a total lack of release. In specific, informed, settings, other weights could be chosen. While finding the optimal release strategy is impossible but for highly discrete settings, the framework obviously allows for the ranking of natural strategies like insufficient statistics and synthetic datasets. Comments welcome!

permutations accelerate ABC!

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 9, 2025 by xi'an

Yesterday a arXival by Antoine Luciano, Charly Andral (both PhD students, now or then, at Paris Dauphine), Robin Ryder (formerly at Paris Dauphine, now at Imperial College London) and myself got posted. It proposes to improve the scalability of ABC methods by exploiting the (full or partial) exchangeability in the data by implementing permutation-based matching between observed and simulated samples. This significantly improves computational efficiency, which is further enhanced by sequential strategies such as over-sampling, which facilitates early-stage acceptance by temporarily increasing the number of simulated compartments, and under-matching, which relaxes the acceptance condition by matching only subsets of the data. The map of France appears in connection with an application of the method to estimating SIR parameters, department by department. (It is also reminding me of the cover of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in practice, the 1996 contributed book edited by Wally Gilks, Sylvia Richardson and David Spiegelhalter.)

pr[AI]rie part of new France AI Cluster plan

Posted in University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on May 23, 2024 by xi'an

Pr[AI]rie Scientific Workshop 2024

Posted in Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on March 22, 2024 by xi'an