“It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.“ — DT, 28 Feb. 2026
“I might have forced [Israel’s] hand. If we didn’t do it, [Iran] were going to attack first.“ — DT, 03 March 2026
“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough“ — DT, 08 March 2026
“There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.“ — DT, 06 March 2026
“I think there’s a very good chance we’re going to end up in a deal. And so we’re giving it five days and then we’re going to see where that takes it.” — DT, 23 March 2026
“I don’t want to do a ceasefire. You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side” — DT, 20 March 2026
“[The Iranian Government] want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal, too.”— DT, 20 March 2026
“This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.” — Pete Hegseth, 02 March 2026
“So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.“ — DT, 16 March 2026
“[NATO countries] don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!” — DT, 20 March 2026
Archive for Qatar
and it is getting worse… [verbatim]
Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel with tags Agent Orange, autoritarian, baby Trump, Bahrain, BBC, cliffs, Derailed Trump, designators, Donald Trump, European Union, humanism, Iran, Israel, Kuwait, nationalism, populism, Qatar, quotes, Saudi Arabia, The Guardian, The New York Times, theocracy, UAE, US elections 2024, US politics, war crimes on April 3, 2026 by xi'an
The New Yorker [Dec. 12, 2022]
Posted in Books, Kids, pictures with tags anti-abortion organisations, Christmas tree, cover, Matthieu Forichon, Milano, New York, non-viable pregnancy, Protect Abortion, Qatar, rape, Rockefeller Center, Salman Rushd, short story, The New Yorker, TikTok, Università Bocconi on February 9, 2023 by xi'an
a football post?!
Posted in Statistics with tags FIFA, football, intractable likelihood, marketing, pseudo-marginal MCMC, Qatar, randomisation, resampling, retrospective sampling, stratified sampling, television, UEFA, uniform distribution, University of Warwick, world cup on June 22, 2022 by xi'an
I am not interested in football, neither as a player (a primary school trauma when I was the last being picked!) or as a fan, contrary to my dad (who was a football referee in his youth) and my kids, but Gareth Roberts (University of Warwick) and Jeff Rosenthal wrote a paper on football draws for the (FIFA) World Cup, infamously playing in Qatar by the end of the year, which Gareth presented in a Warwick seminar.
For this tournament, there are 32 teams, first playing against opponent teams supposedly drawn from a uniform distribution over all draw assignments, within 8 groups of 4 teams, with constraints like 1-2 EU teams per group, 0-1 from the other regions. As done at the moment and on TV, the tournament is filled one team at time by drawing from Pot 1, then Pot 2, then Pot 3, & Pot 4. &tc.. Applying the constraints one draw at a time, conditional on the past draws and the constraints, rather obviously creates non-uniformity! Uniformity would be achievable by rejection sampling (with a success probability of 1/540!) But this is not televisesque enough…
A debiasing solution is found by using several balls for each team in the right proportion, correcting for the sequential draws. Still impractical when requiring 10¹⁴ balls…!
The fun in their paper is that the problem can be formulated as a particle filter, estimating the right probabilities by randomising the number of balls [hidden randomness] and estimating the probability for team j to be included by a few thousands draws. With some stratified sampling on the side to minimise randomness. Removing the need for the (intractable?) distribution is thus achieved by retrospective sampling, as in pseudo-marginal MCMC. Alternatively, one could swap pairs of teams by a simplistic MCMC algorithm, with no worry about stationarity and the possibility of on-screen draws. (Jeff devised a Java applet to simulate an actual draw.) Obviously, it is still a far stretch that this proposal will be implemented for the next World Cup. If so, I will watch it!
