Archive for UK Parliement

far-right violence: digital radicalisation is threatening democracy [The Guardian]

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 17, 2026 by xi'an

An editorial from The Guardian on 10 June, addressing the far-right, racist, and anything but spontaneous, riots in the UK:

Masked men who drive terrorised families out of their homes cannot be called protesters, since the word implies legitimate grievance. The outbreak of racist violence in Northern Ireland this week is connected to the politics of migration, but not in the way that the mob and those who incited it claim. The ostensible trigger was a brutal assault, partially captured on video. A man of Sudanese origin has been charged with attempted murder. The footage was widely shared online. The attack was depicted as part of a wider threat to white Britons by foreign “invaders”. Far-right agitators summoned vengeful crowds. Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, a.k.a. Tommy Robinson, was instrumental in this process. So was Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X, whose platform helped mobilise racist fury.

Mr Musk habitually intervenes in UK politics. Last year, he addressed a rally organised by Mr Yaxley‑Lennon via video link. He called for the removal of the current government and warned against the threat from “uncontrolled migration”. He told the crowd “You either fight back or you die”. He reposted that line on Tuesday.

Mr Musk shows no interest in the reality of life in the UK, preferring to amplify dystopian myths. Mr Yaxley-Lennon styles himself as a patriot, but his racially charged ultranationalism is hostile to traditions of British pluralism and tolerance. His true ideological affinity is revealed by the trip he made to Moscow last week with the goal, as he put it, of admiring “the beauty of a civilised society”. That is not how most British people would characterise Vladimir Putin’s repressive authoritarian regime, which murders dissidents and invaded a neighbouring democracy to steal its territory.

Mr Yaxley-Lennon doesn’t represent mainstream opinion, but his divisive politics are expanding from the fringe, facilitated by social media algorithms and, in the case of Mr Musk, one especially powerful and ideologically fixated oligarch. The result is a digital ecosystem where moderate conservative opinion has been crowded out by radical nationalism and, on the topic of immigration, a far-right worldview twisted with paranoia and racist hysteria.

Reform UK’s Nigel Farage and Restore Britain’s Rupert Lowe act as conduits for that style in mainstream debate, channelling the idiom of the fringe into parliament and on BBC bulletins. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, condemns violent manifestations of anti-immigrant politics but fails to recognise that her own party has abetted the rhetorical vilification that turns minority communities into targets for mob rage. Ms Badenoch also competes for attention in online spaces and in analogue right-leaning media, where politics is a feedback loop of radicalisation. When the economic conditions that incubate extremism are hard to fix, politicians are drawn to collude in the fiction that migration is the root cause and to excuse racism as a normal expression of social discontent.

This process has met far too little resistance from Sir Keir Starmer’s government. The prime minister issues insipid warnings to social media companies to behave responsibly. He condemns racist violence and urges calm on the streets. But he does not properly address the mechanism – the ideological capture of a digital information space – that is undermining social cohesion and sabotaging democracy at a systemic level. A contagious violent strain of far-right politics has been normalised online and is now spreading on to the streets. It needs to be beaten on both fronts.

politics coming [too close to] statistics [or the reverse]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on May 9, 2020 by xi'an

On 30 April, David Spiegelhalter wrote an opinion column in The Guardian, Coronavirus deaths: how does Britain compare with other countries?, where he pointed out the difficulty, even “for a bean-counting statistician to count deaths”, as the reported figures are undercounts, and stated that “many feel that excess deaths give a truer picture of the impact of an epidemic“. Which, on the side, I indeed believe is a more objective material, as also reported by INSEE and INED in France.

“…my cold, statistical approach is to wait until the end of the year, and the years after that, when we can count the excess deaths. Until then, this grim contest won’t produce any league tables we can rely on.” D. Spiegelhalter

My understanding of the tribune is that the quick accumulation of raw numbers, even for deaths, and their use in the comparison of procedures and countries is not helping in understanding the impacts of policies and actions-reactions from a week ago. Starting with the delays in reporting death certificates, as again illustrated by the ten day lag in the INSEE reports. And accounting for covariates such as population density, economic and health indicators. (The graph below for instance relies on deaths so far attributed to COVID-19 rather than on excess deaths, while these attributions depend on the country policy and its official statistics capacities.)

“Polite request to PM and others: please stop using my Guardian article to claim we cannot make any international comparisons yet. I refer only to detailed league tables—of course we should now use other countries to try and learn why our numbers are high.” D. Spiegelhalter

However, when on 6 May Boris Johnson used this Guardian article during prime minister’s questions in the UK Parliement, to defuse a question from the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, David Spiegelhalter reacted with the above tweet, which is indeed that even with poor and undercounted data the total number of cases is much worse than predicted by the earlier models and deadlier than in neighbouring countries. Anyway, three other fellow statisticians, Phil Brown, Jim Smith (Warwick), and Henry Wynn, also reacted to David’s tribune by complaining at the lack of statistical modelling behind it and the fatalistic message it carries, advocating for model based decision-making, which would be fine if the data was not so unreliable… or if the proposed models were equipped with uncertainty bumpers accounting for misspecification and erroneous data.

led by donkeys out of the EU [not yet!]

Posted in Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , on October 19, 2019 by xi'an