Archive for Berlin

a journal of the [end of the] chaos year

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 31, 2025 by xi'an

 Read the delightful Barrowbreck by Andrew M Hurley, a great collection of short stories is made coherent by its unity of place, a lost, dark, valley between Lancashire and Yorkshire. The stories unfold from the Bronze ages till a near and disastrous future. While the book is often presented as horror fiction, I rather see it as an exploration of an alternate reality, a fantasy just outside our own world. Not inducing dread or unease in the reader. The author demonstrates great skill in setting substantial characters and situations within a few pages, in translating the inner feelings of highly diverse people and, above all, in refraining from providing a definite conclusion to his stories. Some of them are striking enough to remain in my memories for a while!

Apart from an Indian-style vegetable six dishes feast, did not experiment much in the kitchen, in part due to my travelling one week out of two between November and December. But harvested and prepared my olives after collecting about 3 litters of them. (I also tasted a Banh Chhev (in Petit Cambodge, Paris but it failed short from my expectation, neither crispy nor sizzling. And cold.)

Watched As You Stood By, a Korean drama about domestic violence. And then Last Samurai Standing. Adapted from the novel of the same name written by Shogo Imamura. And the rather hilarious movie Good News, a South Korean disaster black comedy film playing a similar trick to Good bye Lenin. Gave up watching an unlucky series of terrible films and TV series. From the cheezy A Man on the Inside (which surely makes Agatha Christie cringe in her grave), to Ichikei’s Crow (a highly unrealistic sequence of near-judicial errors in a Tokyo tribunal, with the redeeming feature of a three-leg crow logo, Yatagarasu, also a guardian on the Kumanokodo), to the pretentious Frankenstein by Guillermo del Toro (where over-prefect Victorian tableaux and crepuscular lighting games kill the scenario even before it is brought to life by Dr. Frankenstein’s steampunk apparatus, aka, the mélo chokes the drama!), to Troll 2, even worse than Troll, pulling on the very same strings as the first film, with the very same house eviscerated again by another strolling troll!, as well as a complete disregard for archaeological dig rules and with the ultimate lame resort to holy water! Catching a few views of the Jotunheimen peaks, though (which we hiked 35 years ago).

André ou Jean Ville (1910-1989)

Posted in Books, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 12, 2025 by xi'an

Throughover the workshop in Chennai floated (!) the figure of Jean/André Ville, with his inequality generalising Markov’s, who invented martingales. He is not such a well-known figure in France—at least to me!—, despite having led a rather exceptional life, from being a visiting scholar in Berlin (in the Maison académique de Berlin, along with a certain Jean-Paul Sartre) and Vienna in the 1930s, to his wife being (in Berlin) one of the many (disposable and despised) lovers of JP Sartre (to whom an open-minded or clueless Ville later sent his thèse d’université on martingales and collectives, a much more substantial piece of work than the current PhD), to him working with German and Austrian mathematicians and logicians, such as Popper, Gödel, and Wald–who, what a coïncidence!, died in India from a plane crash in 1950 that had left from Chennai–and being impressed enough by the latter to passing an economics degree in the Sorbonne when back in Paris, establishing a minimax result for a zero-sum matrix game with two players, to his counter-example to von Mises’ kollectiv, to his nickname of the King of Counterexamples in the Viennese mathematics seminar, to him operating the first (Bull) computer at the Université de Paris. (Glenn Shafer wrote a detailed accounting of his youth, on which this post is based, up to his thesis defence but a few days from France mobilising for war–where his collegue Wolfgang Doeblin would kill himself the year after, to avoid capture–. With Bernard Bru, Edmond Malinvaud and Alain Trognon among the people who helped.) After the war, he worked several years as a prépa maths teacher before working for a French State electricity companion on signal theory and Monte Carlo methods, and then returning to Université de Paris as a professor in 1957.

mixed news on the Western [abortion] front

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 6, 2024 by xi'an

In the past weeks, a mix of negative and positive moves about abortion in Europe and the USA (which among other bans resuscitated a 1864 near-total abortion ban in Arizona and saw sad-faced Mike Pence complain in TNYT (!) about mad-hatter and opportunist Donald Trump “retreat from the pro-life cause”):

France has added that “The law determines the conditions by which is exercised the freedom of women to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy, which is guaranteed” to the Article 34 of the French Constitution, which is intended to make access to abortion a fundamental right but still remains a formal move as it can be reinterpreted restrictively (which conditions?!) and does not state anything about the practical side of universally ensuring this access, which might be severely hindered by a dearth of willing practicians or the introduction of constraints on clinics, as seen for many years in the US, prior to the revocation of Roe vs. Wade.

Poland has seen its MPs from its lower house vote on four bills on abortion for further study, of which two propose legalising abortion until the 12th week of pregnancy and cancel the current quasi-complete ban on abortion.

Germany Bundestag is working on a bill that would outlaw the intimidation of people around abortion clinics offering abortion. The country should however more much further by making abortion legal, which is not the case now (even though there are “exceptions for abortions with counseling in the first trimester, and for medically necessary abortions [incl. or serious social or emotional distress] and abortions due to unlawful sexual acts”) and actual access to abortion practitioners proves a challenge. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are unsurprisingly opposing this legalisation.

Italy saw Meloni’s far-right government allowing anti-abortion activists to enter abortion consultation clinics!!, as part of a package of measures funded by the EU!!!. with the [newspeak] argument that they “must not criminalise those who are against abortion. [The Government has] always allowed freedom of conscience on issues of this kind [and] believe it is right for everyone to behave according to their own beliefs and conscience.”

Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 9, 2023 by xi'an

Ian Waudby-Smith and Aaditya Ramdas are presenting next month a Read Paper to the Royal Statistical Society in London on constructing a conservative confidence interval on the mean of a bounded random variable. Here is an extended abstract from within the paper:

For each m ∈ [0, 1], we set up a “fair” multi-round game of statistician
against nature whose payoff rules are such that if the true mean happened
to equal m, then the statistician can neither gain nor lose wealth in
expectation (their wealth in the m-th game is a nonnegative martingale),
but if the mean is not m, then it is possible to bet smartly and make
money. Each round involves the statistician making a bet on the next
observation, nature revealing the observation and giving the appropriate
(positive or negative) payoff to the statistician. The statistician then plays
all these games (one for each m) in parallel, starting each with one unit of
wealth, and possibly using a different, adaptive, betting strategy in each.
The 1 − α confidence set at time t consists of all m 2 [0, 1] such that the
statistician’s money in the corresponding game has not crossed 1/α. The
true mean μ will be in this set with high probability.

I read the paper on the flight back from Venice and was impressed by its universality, especially for a non-asymptotic method, while finding the expository style somewhat unusual for Series B, with notions late into being defined if at all defined. As an aside, I also enjoyed the historical connection to Jean Ville‘s 1939 PhD thesis (examined by Borel, Fréchet—his advisor—and Garnier) on a critical examination of [von Mises’] Kollektive. (The story by Glenn Shafer of Ville’s life till the war is remarkable, with the de Beauvoir-Sartre couple making a surprising and rather unglorious appearance!). Himself inspired by a meeting with Wald while in Berlin. The paper remains quite allusive about Ville‘s contribution, though, while arguing about its advance respective to Ville’s work… The confidence intervals (and sequences) depend on a supermartingale construction of the form

M_t(m):=\prod_{i=1}^t \exp\left\{ \lambda_i(X_i-m)-v_i\psi(\lambda_i)\right\}

which allows for a universal coverage guarantee of the derived intervals (and can optimised in λ). As I am getting confused by that point about the overall purpose of the analysis, besides providing an efficient confidence construction, and am lacking in background about martingales, betting, and sequential testing, I will not contribute to the discussion. Especially since ChatGPT cannot help me much, with its main “criticisms” (which I managed to receive while in Italy, despite the Italian Government banning the chabot!)

However, there are also some potential limitations and challenges to this approach. One limitation is that the accuracy of the method is dependent on the quality of the prior distribution used to set the odds. If the prior distribution is poorly chosen, the resulting estimates may be inaccurate. Additionally, the method may not work well for more complex or high-dimensional problems, where there may not be a clear and intuitive way to set up the betting framework.

and

Another potential consequence is that the use of a betting framework could raise ethical concerns. For example, if the bets are placed on sensitive or controversial topics, such as medical research or political outcomes, there may be concerns about the potential for manipulation or bias in the betting markets. Additionally, the use of betting as a method for scientific or policy decision-making may raise questions about the appropriate role of gambling in these contexts.

being totally off the radar… (No prior involved, no real-life consequence for betting, no gambling.)

International Women’ Day: EU solidarity [reposted]

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 8, 2022 by xi'an

EP President Roberta Metsola said: ‘‘I want to start by commending the incredibly brave women of Ukraine who are fighting, forced to shelter their loved ones in bunkers, giving birth in metro stations and leading on the frontline. It is a testament to their courage, strength and resilience even in the worst circumstances.’’

Women’s Rights and Gender Equality Committee Chair Robert Biedroń (S&D, PL), declared: ‘‘A few days ago, in the very heart of Europe, Russia launched a brutal war on Ukraine, entirely in breach of international agreements, human rights and our values. I condemn this aggression that has led to the senseless deaths of many Ukrainian soldiers (20% of whom are women) and civilians. Over a million refugees have crossed the border now, mostly women (some of them pregnant) and children. We need to ensure proper assistance is provided to them.’’

French Minister Delegate for Gender Equality, Diversity and Equal Opportunities Élisabeth Moreno, added: ‘‘I salute the courage and determination of the Ukrainian people, of these women and men who are facing a wave of unanimously condemned violence. Let us remember that women and girls are always the first victims of crises. Despite this, they are excluded from strategic discussions and exchanges on security and peace.’’

The Prime Minister of Iceland Katrín Jakobsdóttir declared: ”We must put pressure on Russia to immediately stop this war. Our thoughts are with the people of Ukraine. Gender equality should always be on our agenda, even on times like these. The world would be more peaceful with more women in the lead, I have no doubt about that.”

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Chair of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee for Ukraine’s integration into the EU, made the following statement: ‘‘I would have loved to join you today to discuss gender equality but I will talk about war. Thousands of women with children are trying to relocate to a safer place. Some have difficulties accessing basic products like baby food, while others are giving birth in shelters. Elderly people are sometimes left alone at home with no access to medicine or food. I urge your governments to declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine, to provide massive military support and to engage right now in providing humanitarian corridors for women, children and elderly people. Please do stand with Ukraine and help us preserve ourselves and the values we are standing for.’’