Archive for dinosaur

Nature tidbits [11 Dec 2025]

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 25, 2026 by xi'an

This issue of Nature features dinosaurs on its cover, as in old-time science magazines, yay! In association with a new (tiny) species of tyrannosaurus.

On the Trump 2.0 disaster scene, a reflection on the dangers of the Genesis Mission, which directed by the US Department of Energy to create AI scientists–and give AI companies access to federal datasets. Trump’s attempt to have his own (obviously Big & Beautiful) Manhattan Project?! Unsurprisingly, sounds very messy at this stage.

ICLR 2026 being exposed having 21% of the reviews are fully AI generated using tools from Pangram Labs, in New York. (And around 10% of the submissions being mostly written by AIs as well.) The inevitable evolution of the machine learning conference reviewing process?! Plus a review of the impact of Alphafold for its fifth anniversary. And a discussed paper by Oh & al. on meta-learning, conceiving reinforced learning algorithms that learn how to create learning algorithms. Without engaging with the paper per se I wonder at the degree of incrementality of the proposal. And hence find the catastrophic warning reproduced below rather over-the-top.

“In conclusion, it seems probable that AI will have an increasing role in the design of AI algorithms, a trend for which Oh et al.’s work is a harbinger. It is both exciting and worrying; the potential for intellectual discovery is vast, but the possible acceleration of a technology that already has an outsized societal impact is concerning in a world that is almost certainly not ready for the field’s dizziest possibilities to be realized ahead of schedule.” Joel Lehman

Also a book review of Belluz & Hall’s Food Intelligence, on the harms of processed food and the many myths that come with obesity and diets. Along a comment on diminishing investments on agricultural science being partly to blame for high food prices. And a concentration of the countries involved in R&D. But not helping (me) with the paradox that developed countries struggle to keep farming profitable enough for the farmers. As shown by the perpetual unrest of heavily subsidised farmers in the EU.

Nature tidbits

Posted in Books, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 9, 2025 by xi'an

From the 12 December issue, lots of AI entries in Nature (soon moving to NAIture??), from the arrival of AGI, artificial general intelligence, and the usual barren call for companies to take responsibility (!) and equally repeated pious wishes for (better) controlling the incoming “human intelligent” AIs, to the two year anniversary of ChatGPT, which came as a significant support to non-native English speakers, if raising concern about the privacy losses in delivering unprotected data to the model,  to the incoming dearth of data to feed AIs (duh? why would new data be necessary for new AI systems?), with the danger that using AI generated data to train new AIs is not good being repeated anew, to the poor performances of LLMs on African languages, and the correlated dearth of funding in Africa, to DeepMind doing better than weather agency supercomputers to predict weather on a 15 day window, including extreme weather events (not much of a surprise, as climate change does not mean that history of past weather patterns cannot be exploited) albeit the probabilistic nature of the forecast seems to derive from the randomness of the starting conditions, hence depends on the choice of that distribution, to the (unsurprising) 50% productivity boost in design in a material science company afforded by seconding (or supplanting!) researchers with AI tools, to the poor design of bar plots (inc. Nature) that induce misunderstandings. A fair degree of double entries when considering the earlier 5 December issue, also read in the plane, with again fossilized poo, AI soon reaching human intelligence level (??),  and the AI computing gap between academy and industry. Beside this AI frenzy, a news article reporting on the EU trying to create an applied research council equivalent to what the ERC succeeded for academic research. (And I will not mention the digestive track article further than pointing out it added bromalite, cololite, and regurgitalite, to my digestive vocabulary!)

Bayesian thinking for toddler & Bayesian probabilities for babies [book reviews]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on January 27, 2023 by xi'an

My friend E.-J.  Wagenmakers sent me a copy of Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers, “a must-have for any toddler with even a passing interest in Ockham’s razor and the prequential principle.” E.-J. wrote the story and Viktor Beekman (of thesis’ cover fame!) drew the illustrations. The book can be read for free on https://psyarxiv.com/w5vbp/, but not purchased as publishers were not interested and self-publishing was not available at a high enough quality level. Hence, in the end, 200 copies were made as JASP material, with me being the happy owner of one of these. The story follows two young girls competing for dinosaur expertise, and being rewarded by cookies, in proportion to the probability of providing the correct answer to two dinosaur questions. Toddlers may get less enthusiastic than grown-ups about the message, but they will love the drawings (and the questions if they are into dinosaurs).

This reminded me of the Bayesian probabilities for babies book, by Chris Ferrie, which details the computation of the probability that a cookie contains candy when the first bite holds none. It is more genuinely intended for young kids, in shape and design, as can be checked on a YouTube video, with an hypothetical population of cookies (with and without candy) being the proxy for the prior distribution. I hope no baby will be traumatised from being exposed too early to the notions of prior and posterior. Only data can tell, twenty years from now, if the book induced a spike or a collapse in the proportion of Bayesian statisticians!

[Disclaimer about potential self-plagiarism: this post or an edited version will potentially appear in my Books Review section in CHANCE.

Better together in Kolkata [slides]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on January 4, 2018 by xi'an

Here are the slides of the talk on modularisation I am giving today at the PC Mahalanobis 125 Conference in Kolkata, mostly borrowed from Pierre’s talk at O’Bayes 2018 last month:

[which made me realise Slideshare has discontinued the option to update one’s presentation, forcing users to create a new presentation for each update!] Incidentally, the amphitheatre at ISI is located right on top of a geological exhibit room with a reconstituted Barapasaurus tagorei so I will figuratively ride a dinosaur during my talk!