Archive for Bayesian statistics
BAYSM 2025 [registration and abstract submission]
Posted in Statistics, University life with tags Bayes theorem, Bayesian statisticians, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM, BAYSM 2025, Blackwell-Rosenbluth Award, conference, ISBA, j-ISBA, keynote speaker, online meeting, registration, young researchers on February 19, 2025 by xi'ancelebrating the career of Adrian Raftery
Posted in Books, Mountains, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags ABCDE, Adrian Raftery, applied statistics, Bayesian statistics, computational Bayesian methods, Environmental Statistics, Ireland, JSM 2024, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Oregon, Pacific North West, Paris 6, Portland, Seattle, statistical demography, United Nations, University of Washington, USA, UW, Washington State on July 28, 2024 by xi'anterrible graph and chilies [not a book review]
Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags bad graph, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian textbook, chili pepper, cross validated, probability density, teaching statistics on January 29, 2024 by xi'an
A question on X validated led me to this Bayesian book with a chill cover (except that it first made me seek a word from the chili sequence!), because of a graph within that confused the OP for that question. Here is the graph:
It represents three *prior* densities at once, namely the (uniform) prior density of a Binomial probability θ, the prior density of its transform θ², and the prior density of the other transform θ¹⁰. Which makes no sense since the first axis is indexed simultaneously by values of the three random variables. Meaning a particular index like 0.4 corresponds to three values of θ, namely θ=0.4 and θ²=0.4 and θ¹⁰=0.4… In other words, the “probability of event occurring, f(θ), corresponds to *three different* events and *three different* f’s. Another needless confusion is that the red and dashed density curves appeared as everywhere above one another, which is impossible since they both are probability densities. And the boxed legend does not help



