Archive for Brazil

a journal of the chaos, conquest, war, famine, and death [by drowning & ordeal] year

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 1, 2024 by xi'an

Read Indriðason’s Sigurverkið (The king and the clockmaker) while spending the day in Charles de Gaulle airport waiting for my flight to Birmingham. This is an historical if romanced novel taking place around 1800 in both Iceland and Denmark. It is somewhat connected to Hannah Kent’s Burial Rites, —which impressed me so much that it became a customary book gift—in that this 2021 book by Indriðason is also about a judicial execution of a woman (and her lover) in Iceland, if a few decades earlier and by drowning in a bag at Thingvellir—which we visited during AISTATS in 2014—. The story is however told in a plainer style, the son of this woman being both the narrator, and the clockmaker repairing the historical clock of Habrecht—which was indeed in the Danish Royal Collection at the time and about to be repaired— , while the audience is the mentally unstable and in-name-only King of Denmark, Christian VII, whose father, Frederik V, had (twice) condemned the victims to death. Since the main story is known from the start there is no suspense and little sense of urgency, which makes the book slow-paced and not very engaging, even though the depiction of 18th Century Iceland and its dominion by the Danish crown remains interesting, as well as the historical basis for the executions, the Stóradomi [Great Edict] of 1564 that prescribed beheading for men and drowning for women in case of incest (which actually did not take place for the unjustly executed couple).

Made half a dozen ginger jam jars, as it is currently plentiful and very cheap at the local market (although shipped from Brazil!). But mostly because it is my wife’s favourite jam. Resulting in a definitely tangy jam, despite adding rhubarb, (entire) lemons and pears. Also took advantage of a sea brass BBQ to cook on the side sweet potatoes towards an unusual humus.

Watched (at last!) Scott’s The Last Duel, which foundations appealed to me for being a medieval remake of [my favourite movie] Rashōmon and for supposedly taking place in the vicinity of my home county (supposedly so because no scene was shot in or nearby Normandy!). The outcome is mixed for me, as the setting remains Disney-esque despite the use of medieval castles with tidy landscapes and interiors—the Castle of Carrouge being too “modern” for that purpose—, extensive battle scenes—why would hidden archers resort to fiery arrows?!—, a knighthood quite late in the coming,  out-of-tune medieval music, an absurd medieval transplant of the modern constant need to hold a drink, a cartoonesque Paris (where Notre Dame had already been completed and where watermills fed by rainwater would not have lasted very long), but also Damon’s credible play-acting as a medieval lout, strong hints at the [Fol] King Charles VI’s unstable mind, impressive acting of Jodie Comer against her judges, along a ghastly reminder that in medieval times rape was not believed to induce pregnancy. Background conversations are in French, but clash with the main actors’ English (maiming all French names!). So it could have been worse, witness Scott’s Napoleon!

iconoclastas e inumeráveis [confusing 08 Jan 23 with 06 Jan 21]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on January 8, 2023 by xi'an

Poisson-Belgium 0-0

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 5, 2022 by xi'an

“Statistical match predictions are more accurate than many people realize (…) For the upcoming Qatar World Cup, Penn’s model suggests that Belgium (…) has the highest chances of raising the famous trophy, followed by Brazil”

Even Nature had to get entries on the current football World cup, with a paper on data-analytics reaching football coaches and teams. This is not exactly prime news, as I remember visiting the Department of Statistics of the University of Glasgow in the mid 1990’s and chatting with a very friendly doctoral student who was consulting for the Glasgow Rangers (or Celtics?!) on the side at the time. And went back to Ireland to continue with a local team (Galway?!).

The paper reports on different modellings, including one double-Poisson model by (PhD) Matthew Penn from Oxford and (maths undergraduate) Joanna Marks from Warwick, which presumably resemble the double-Poisson version set by Leonardo Egidi et al. and posted on Andrews’ blog a few days ago. Following an earlier model by my friends Karlis & Ntzoufras in 2003. While predictive models can obviously fail, this attempt is missing Belgium, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico, Uruguay, and Denmark early elimination from the cup. One possible reason imho is that national teams do not play that often when players are employed by different clubs in many counties, hence are hard to assess, but I cannot claim any expertise or interest in the game.

zombie ants

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , on October 26, 2019 by xi'an

Nature worries

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 9, 2019 by xi'an

In the 29 August issue, worries about the collapse of the Italian government coalition for research (as the said government had pledge to return funding to 2009 [higher!] levels), Brexit as in every issue (and the mind of every EU researcher working in the UK), facial recognition technology that grows much faster than the legal protections which should come with it, thanks to big tech companies like Amazon and Google. In Western countries, not China… One acute point in the tribune being the lack of open source software to check for biases. More worries about Amazon, the real one!, with Bolsonaro turning his indifference if not active support of the widespread forest fires into a nationalist campaign. And cutting 80,000 science scholarships. Worries on the ethnic biases in genetic studies and the All of Us study‘s attempt to correct that (study run by a genetic company called Color, which purpose is to broaden the access to genetic counseling to under-represented populations). Further worries on fighting self-citations (with John Ioannidis involved in the analysis). With examples reaching a 94% rate for India’s most cited researcher.