Archive for coronavirus epidemics

Julyan’s talk on priors in Bayesian neural networks [cancelled!]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 5, 2020 by xi'an

Next Friday, 13 March at 1:30p.m., Julyan Arbel, researcher at Inria Grenoble will give a All about that Bayes talk at CMLA, ENS Paris-Saclay (building D’Alembert, room Condorcet, Cachan, RER stop Bagneux) on

Understanding Priors in Bayesian Neural Networks at the Unit Level

We investigate deep Bayesian neural networks with Gaussian weight priors and a class of ReLU-like nonlinearities. Bayesian neural networks with Gaussian priors are well known to induce an L², “weight decay”, regularization. Our results characterize a more intricate regularization effect at the level of the unit activations. Our main result establishes that the induced prior distribution on the units before and after activation becomes increasingly heavy-tailed with the depth of the layer. We show that first layer units are Gaussian, second layer units are sub-exponential, and units in deeper layers are characterized by sub-Weibull distributions. Our results provide new theoretical insight on deep Bayesian neural networks, which we corroborate with simulation experiments.

 

Ca’ Foscari closed due to 19nCoV scare

Posted in pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , on February 23, 2020 by xi'an

An email from the Rettore I just received on my Ca’ Foscari account, announcing the University is closed over all its campi due to some cases of Coronavirus in the Veneto region:

Care colleghe e cari colleghi tutti, care studentesse e cari studenti,

abbiamo avuto ieri e oggi la notizia di diversi casi di infezione da Coronavirus 19nCoV in Veneto, una situazione che prevede misure appropriate e la massima attenzione.

Invito innanzitutto l’intera comunità accademica a seguire con grande scrupolo le prescrizioni che l’unità di crisi regionale ha emanato, ed emanerà sulla base della evoluzione del contagio. Si raccomandano in particolare le seguenti misure di prevenzione (nota OMS e linea indirizzo MUR):
• Lavare spesso le mani con acqua e sapone o gel disinfettanti
• Quando si tossisce o starnutisce, coprire la bocca e il naso con il gomito o fazzoletto usa e getta, lavandosi poi le mani
• Evitare il contatto con chiunque abbia febbre e tosse.

Riguardo alle attività accademiche, al fine di ridurre le possibilità di contagio, si dispone – secondo le indicazioni del Presidente Luca Zaia e in coordinamento con le università del Veneto –  la sospensione delle lezioni e degli esami in tutte le sedi dell’università, a Venezia, Mestre, Treviso e Roncade dal 24/02 al 29/02 compresi. Biblioteche e aule studio saranno chiuse dal 23/02 al 01/03.
Il recupero delle lezioni e degli esami verrà comunicato quanto prima sul sito web di Ca’ Foscari e sui canali di comunicazione ufficiali.
Per il personale tutto,  docente e non docente, le attività si svolgeranno regolarmente, fatte salve le ordinanze locali che vincolino la mobilità delle persone.
L’Ateneo è in continuo contatto con l’unità di crisi e con i ministeri competenti, e provvederà ad aggiornare le misure oggi vigenti sulla base dell’evoluzione della situazione.
Il Rettore
Michele Bugliesi

ISBA in Kunming postponed till 2021

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on February 22, 2020 by xi'an

The ISBA Program committee has just announced that the ISBA World Meeting 2020 in Kunming, China, is postponed until 2021, 28 June till 03 July (and the resolution of the nCoV epidemics). Which is quite unfortunate given the closeness of the meeting and the degree of preparation of the local and scientific committees, but also unavoidable given the difficulties and reluctance of traveling to China at the moment. Hopefully, the health threat will get under control (other than keeping every citizen under lock) sooner than that. Satellite meetings like BAYSM will be moved as well, in a place and on a date soon to be announced.

As an aside, I still call for the additional organisation of mirror conferences of this World meeting  to multiply the opportunities for gathering Bayesians, share results, listen to talks and decrease the amount of travelling (and potential issues with visa, funds, human right concerns, &tc.) To quote Chairman Mao, let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools of thought contend!

SMC on the 2019-2020 nCoV outbreak

Posted in Books, R, Statistics, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , on February 19, 2020 by xi'an

Two weeks ago, Kurcharski et al., from the CMMID nCoV working group at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, published on medrXiv a statistical analysis via a stochastic SEIR model of the evolution of the 2019-2020 nCoV epidemics, with prediction of a peak outbreak by late February in Wuhan and a past outbreak abroad. Here are some further details on the modelling:

Transmission was modelled as a geometric random walk process, and we used sequential Monte Carlo to infer the transmission rate over time, as well as the resulting number of cases and the time-varying reproduction number, R, defined as the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious individual on each day.
To calculate the likelihood, we used a Poisson observation model fitted jointly to expected values based on three model outputs. To calculate the daily expectation for each Poisson observation process, we converted these outputs into new case onset and new reported cases inside Wuhan and travelling internationally. We assumed a different relative reporting  probability for Wuhan cases compared to international cases, as assumed only a proportion of confirmed Wuhan cases had known onset dates (fixed at 0.15 based on available line list data). As destination country was known for confirmed exported cases, we used 20 time series for cases exported (or not) to most at-risk countries each day and calculated the probability of obtaining each of these datasets given the model outputs. International onset data was not disaggregated by country and so we used the total daily exported cases in our Poisson probability calculation.
I did not look much further into the medrXiv document but the model may be too simplistic as it does not seem to account for the potential under-reporting within China and the impact of the severe quarantine imposed by Chinese authorities which may mean a new outbreak as soon as the confinement is lifted.

sustainable workshops and conferences

Posted in Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on February 17, 2020 by xi'an

The current uncertainty about whether or not ISBA 2020 will take place (and where it will take place), along with a recent Nature article and a discussion in the common room of the Department of Statistics at Warwick, lead me to renew the call for a more sustainable form of conferencing. By creating a network of local havens or a garland of local magnets (competition open for a catchy “x of local y” denomination) attracting people in the area to gather together, attend some of the video-ed talks in the other knots, and add their own local activities, from talks to collaborative brainstorming. Obviously, this requires additional planning and some technical details, but it should become a habit rather than the exception. ABC in Grenoble is thinking about it, let me know if you are interesting in creating a local image of the workshop.