``Probability is of two kinds: either when the object is itself uncertain, and to be determined by chance: or, when though the object is already certain, yet it is uncertain to our judgment, which finds a number of proofs or presumptions on each side of the question.” A Treatise of Human Nature, by David Hume, 1739.
Jean-Louis Foulley pointed out to me this great citation from the Scottish philosopher David Hume, more than twenty years prior to Thomas Bayes… Actually, there is an interesting historical question as to whether (and then how) Hume and Bayes could have interacted. (When Bayes studied in Edinburgh in the 1720’s, Hume was less than 12…)
