Archive for #ERCSyG

Information Geometry, Privacy and Monte Carlo workshop, ISM, 4-5 July 2026

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on July 6, 2026 by xi'an

After the (exciting) variety and spread of ISBA²⁶, here we are at much more focussed (and single-track), if equally exciting, workshop at the ISM. (With many participants from ISBA²⁶.)

On Saturday afternoon, Ajay Jasra talked about Particle filtering for state-space models with low, degenerate noise, with specific measure issues I did not really get, since the manifold attached to the noise was known, but the projected density may prove a challenge. Manifolds were also central to Kenji Fukumizu’s talk on Learning manifold structure and density with score-based models learning scores as projectors to the manifold, although it was unclear to me how this was possible when the manifold is unknown. Christophe Andrieu presented Geometry informed selection in multiple proposal MCMC which stems from an early multi-proposal (1998) proposal by Radford Neal and uses a multivariate ranking procedure to quantify a measure of surprise for the current  Markov chain value within the proposed ones. The crux for the efficiency of the approach may be in the choice of this ranking procedure. And Maria De Iorio talked about Efficient MCMC via similarity-driven proposals for discrete support targets, with similarities with ABC.

Completed with a human sized poster session where I reconnected with Spanish friends I had not seen for ages (by missing OBayes meetings).

On (pleasantly rainy) Sunday morning, Federica Milinanni detailled her Rapid mixing of stereographic MCMC for heavy-tailed sampling, essentially the same content as in Nagoya last FRiday, with a novel sub-Cauchy projection supposed to explore heavy tails better: while the regular stereographic projection turns the t-distribution with d degrees of freedom into a Uniform on the hypersphere, a sub-Cauchy projection turns the Cauchy into this uniform. In the privacy session I organised, Hongsheng Dai, member of our ERC Synergy project, presented an Online federated learning framework for classification, using DP as a criterion and achieving by adding noise to the loss function at each occurrence of the data production. Surprisingly increasing with the number of occurrences, not so much since the objective function keeps calling

Stefano Favaro described his Bayesian nonparametric privacy-preserving synthetic data generation method (for discrete data) that connects privacy protection and information preservation. (Incidentally I was unaware of the σ parameter of the Pitman-Yor process, which allows for a finite support when σ<0, but I cannot fathom the appeal of this extension, given the complete lack of connection between the positive and negative cases.) Surprisingly, non-parametric prediction does worse in terms of privacy, if not so surprising with discrete data since the predictive actually put weight on every datapoint. Resorting to  mechanism informativity by Wasserman and Zhou (2010) (with a surprise mention of my friend Arnaud Guilin!). And Joshua Bon gave his Persuasive Privacy talk of last Tuesday  (to be re-repeated two days later at ICML²⁶ in Seoul!). Except for changing the audience game from croissants to sumo wrestlers! (What will it be in Seoul!?) And adding much more details on the foundational elements of persuasive privacy.

The poster session was similarly enjoyable, even though I did not manage to get through all posters.

off to Nagoya [ISBA 2026]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 27, 2026 by xi'an

mostly Monte Carlo in June

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 30, 2026 by xi'an

The last episode of the academic year for our mostly Monte Carlo seminar, next week:

On Friday 05/06/26, from 3-5pm at PariSanté Campus

15h00: Sam Livingstoke (University College London)

Skew-symmetric numerical schemes for stochastic differential equations: strong convergence and multi-level extension
I will discuss recent work fusing together two strands of the applied mathematics and statistics literature, one concerned with developing flexible probability distributions for data that rely on a small number of parameters, and another concerned with developing numerical integration schemes to simulate stochastic processes.  The specific case that I will focus on uses the skew-symmetric family of probability distributions introduced by Adelchi Azzalini and co-authors to approximate the transition kernels of diffusion processes over small time steps, producing alternative numerical schemes to the classical Euler-Maruyama approach.  Applying the scheme to the overdamped Langevin diffusion leads to an unadjusted version of the Barker proposal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.  In earlier work weak accuracy was established over finite and infinite time scales, crucially without needing a globally Lipschitz assumption on the drift of the stochastic differential equation.  I will review this and then discuss more recent work establishing strong convergence in the mean-squared sense using a novel coupling between the numerical and exact processes.  This also enables the development of a multi-level Monte Carlo scheme, which I will discuss the merits of with particular focus on the superlinear drift case, as compared to Euler and Tamed Euler alternatives.
This is joint work with Yuga Iguchi, Giorgos Vasdekis & Rui-Yang Zhang.
16h00: Dana Naderi (Université Paris Dauphine PSL)
Approximating evidence via bounded harmonic means

Efficient Bayesian model selection relies on the model evidence or marginal likelihood, whose computation often requires evaluating an intractable integral. The harmonic mean estimator (HME) has long been a standard method of approximating the evidence. While computationally simple, the version introduced by Newton and Raftery (1994) potentially suffers from infinite variance. To overcome this issue, Gelfand and Dey (1994) defined a standardized representation of the estimator based on an instrumental function and Robert and Wraith (2009) later proposed to use higher posterior density (HPD) indicators as instrumental functions. Following this approach, a practical method is proposed, based on an elliptical covering of the HPD region with non-overlapping ellipsoids. The resulting estimator, called the Elliptical Covering Marginal Likelihood Estimator (ECMLE), not only eliminates the infinite-variance issue of the original HME and allows exact volume computations, but is also able to be used in multimodal settings. Through several examples, we illustrate that ECMLE outperforms other recent methods such as THAMES and its improved version (Metodiev et al. 2025). Moreover, ECMLE demonstrates lower variance a key challenge that subsequent HME variants have sought to address-and provides more stable evidence approximations, even in challenging settings.

This is joint work with Kaniav Kamari, Dareen Wraith & myself (X).

Bayesian persuasive privacy at ICML²⁶

Posted in Books, Mountains, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on May 14, 2026 by xi'an

incoming mostly Monte Carlo [14 April, PariSanté campus]

Posted in pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on April 9, 2026 by xi'an

The next Mostly Monte Carlo seminar will be this very Friday, 10/04/26, at PariSanté Campus. With Shiva Darshan and Pierre Monmarché speaking on the following topics:
15h: Shiva Darshan Maximal-reflection couplings on manifolds: some specific examples
Explicit Markovian couplings can be used to build Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods such unbiased MCMC or coupling based control variates. For sampling from probability measures supported on Euclidean space, one typically uses a synchronous coupling, a maximal-reflection coupling (also known as a discrete-time sticky coupling), or some variant of the two. For probability measures supported on Riemannian manifolds, the situation is less clear cut. While the Kendall-Cranston coupling of Brownian motions on manifolds has been successfully applied in theoretical works, it is ill-suited for building explicit algorithms. In this talk, we will discuss some of the obstacles to extending Euclidean maximal-reflection couplings to manifolds and present some special cases for which these obstacles can be easily overcome. With applications to Stereographic MCMC in mind, we detail particular couplings of random walks on the sphere.
16h: Pierre Monmarché A post-sampling reweighting method for multi-modal target measures
Even when the modes are identified and sampled locally with MCMC methods, a difficulty to sample multi-modal measures is to correctly estimate the relative probabilities of each of these modes, which requires to observe many transitions between them (which are rare events). We will present an approach based on variational inference which exploits the local samples, aiming only at estimating the relative weights between them. When the modes are well separated, this amount to some entropy estimations.