Archive for Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

How quickly does randomness appear?

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on November 10, 2011 by xi'an

This was the [slightly off-key]  title of the math column in the November issue of La Recherche, in any case intriguing enough for me to buy this general public science magazine on the metro platform and to read it immediately while waiting for an uncertain train, thanks to the nth strike of the year on my train line… But this was the occasion for an exposition of the Metropolis algorithm in a general public journal! The column actually originated from a recently published paper by Persi Diaconis, Gilles Lebeaux, and Laurent Michel,  Geometric analysis for the Metropolis algorithm on Lipschitz domain, in Inventiones Mathematicae [one of the top pure math journals]. The column in La Recherche described the Metropolis algorithm (labelled there a random walk on Markov chains!), alluded to the use of MCMC methods in statistics, told the genesis of the paper [namely the  long-term invitation of Persi Diaconis in Nice a few years ago] and briefly explained the convergence result, namely the convergence of the Metropolis algorithm to the stationary measure at a geometric rate, with an application to the non-overlapping balls problem.

If you take a look at the paper, you will see it is a beautiful piece of mathematics, establishing a spectral gap on the Markov operator associated with the Metropolis algorithm and deducing a uniformly geometric convergence [in total variation] for most regular-and-bounded-support distributions. A far from trivial and fairly general result. La Recherche however fails to mention the whole corpus of MCMC convergence results obtained in the 1990’s and 2000’s, by many authors, incl. Richard Tweedie, Gareth Roberts, Jeff Rosenthal, Eric Moulines, Gersende Fort, Randal Douc, Kerrie Mengersen, and others…

A Bayesian Nobel recipient

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , on October 11, 2011 by xi'an

Chris Sims, who got the Nobel Prize in Economics yesterday, or more precisely the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, has [also] done work in Bayesian econometrics. See for instance his talk on Why Econometrics Should Always and Everywhere Be Bayesian. Or his analysis of a counterexample of Larry Wasserman’s. He even has a tech report on adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithms (that apparently did not get published). He has also been teaching Bayesian statistics and econometrics at Princeton for many years, so this is a cool day for Bayesian stats! (The picture of a switching regime estimation on his webpage is actually similar to a rendering of mine from the late 90’s, when I was working on semi-Markov switching AR models with Catalin Starica, except I cannot find any trace but for the Splus code!)