Archive for the Kids Category

Trump goes to war against… randomization!

Posted in Kids, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on July 11, 2026 by xi'an

The US Department of Commerce, through its Office of Privacy and Open Government, has posted an order for federal statistical agencies to stop using randomization as a (worthwhile!) mean of protecting confidential data. Another instance of going against scientific arguments and validated procedures, and of dismantling decade long expertises, and of stopping a long series of observations, and of destasbilising federal agencies, from the Trump administration. To wit:

b.     Statistical Policy Directive No. 1, codified at 44 U.S.C. § 3563, requires each statistical agency, as enabled by the head of the parent agency, to adopt policies, best practices, and appropriate procedures to ensure the confidentiality, accuracy, and objectivity of its statistical activities and to disseminate timely and relevant statistical products.

SECTION 5. POLICY.

.01    Ensuring the Accuracy, Confidentiality, Objectivity, and Relevance of Statistical Products

a.     The Department shall, as a primary objective, aim to fulfill its statistical obligations by providing the public with accurate and objective information.

b.     The Department is firmly committed to striking a balance of accuracy, confidentiality, objectivity, and relevance for each statistical product that is consistent with its statistical obligations and the applicable legal requirements.

c.     Any use of noise infusion is inconsistent with the Department’s policies.

.02   The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis shall adhere to the following order of priority when considering and applying Disclosure Avoidance:

a.     Coarsening shall be the preferred category of Disclosure Avoidance methods for all statistical products.

b.     Suppression shall be permitted as a last resort, only to be used when coarsening is prohibited by law or would substantially defeat the accuracy or usability of a statistical product.

c.     Noise infusion shall not be used for any statistical product.

.03   This policy shall not be interpreted to conflict with any constitutional, statutory, regulatory, or other legal provision.

So here go (to the drain) differential privacy, enforced by the Census Bureau under the direction of John Abowd, as well as synthetic data, subsampling, et cetera! This will directly impact the coming 2030 census. With the asinine arguments by Commerce Department Kristen Eichamer that this is done to “maintain public confidence in our data while upholding our duty to safeguard the privacy of those who provide information” and that “indiscriminate use of noise infusion—even when not mandated by law—ultimately undermined confidence in the department’s products and cast doubt on their integrity.” NPR relates this order to the introduction of differentially private measures around the 2020 census and irrational Republican attacks on the procedure. Which reminds me of an earlier opposition to random sampling instead of “exhaustive enumeration” to correct for undercounts, which brought statisticians from both sides almost to blows! (With a defence of the correction procedure by my later friend Steve Fienberg.)

reporting on the future of ISBA conferences

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on June 25, 2026 by xi'an

Following our earlier survey on the topic, we have now returned our report on the future of ISBA conferences to the ISBA Executive Committee and Guido Consonni wrote an extensive summary of the contents of this report for the ISBA Bulleting that just appeared. This is most timely since it comes just days prior to the ISBA World Meeting in Nagoya, Japan, with a discussion session on Thursday, during lunch break, where we will present the conclusions of this report and engage in discussions with the participants. Looking forward to it!

entre ici, Marc Bloch!

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 24, 2026 by xi'an

AIs rushing to the proofs

Posted in Books, Kids, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 23, 2026 by xi'an

A “Feature” article in Nature (21 May 2026) and a long article in the New York Time (June 8, 2026) are both covering the sudden intrusion of AIs in proving or disproving mathematical conjectures… Genuine, hard, conjectures likes Erdös problems. Specialised AIs like Alethia, Math Inc., AlphaProof are hacking at existing open problems and a benchmark collection of problems whose solutions are not available (yet) called First Proof has been recently gathered, solved by OpenAI,  and is soon to be extended. In an earlier interview with Nature (27 April 2026), Terry Tao acknowledges the tectonic shift represented by this intrusion and how a mathematician’s skill need evolve. (This is also the starting point of the NYT story. ) A side issue of this is that reviewing the proofs thus produced by an AI may prove inhumane if it reaches hundreds of pages, which also relates to the un-academic (?) tendency of AIs companies to over-blow the results produced by their machines. For the times they are a-Changin…